@benatipsosmori @MSmithsonPB Me too.

— Martin Boon (@martinboon) July 3, 2012

The EU isn’t the driver that many think it is

After this morning’s thread header arguing that the Conservatives were misreading the threat from UKIP two of the UK’s top political pollsters, the CEOs of Ipsos-MORI and ICM, Ben Page and Martin Boon, have Tweeted to say they agree.

The point that was being made, using reported information about the Tories’ private polling, was that the impact of the EU was being over-stated by party insiders.

Just one in three CON>UKIP switchers said this was a reason for them to switch support.

We saw last from David Herdson’s analysis of the London Mayoral second preferences that there’s little to support the widely held belief that UKIP supporters are just “Tories on holiday”.

The real figures from a real election suggest something different.

UKIP 1st prefs London Mayor 43,274

UKIP Second prefs to BORIS 14,626

UKIP Second prefs to KEN 4,458

So barely a third of UKIP voters in the London Mayoral election in May used their second preference to vote for Boris.

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB