The London Mayoral race has the feel of the 1992 General Election about it. Then Kinnock was in the lead right until one final poll (top right on picture) which showed Labour and the Tories level pegging. John Major went on to win by 8%. For in the past whenever the Tories have been seen to recover sharply in an eve of election survey they have gone on to win by a mile. Apart from 1992 this happened at the…
What punters are being asked to do with the London Mayor market is bet on which polling methodology they most trust. Is it the tried and tested conventional survey conducted by telephone interviewers or is it the new kid on the block, YouGov, which does it all on the internet and is led by the former political journalist, Peter Kellner (above). The form-book is with YouGov – they got the 2001 General Election right; they got the 2002 London Borough…
How many of these will YOU be counting on Friday? This is in tonight’s Evening Standard:- Among all potential electors, Mr Livingstone is 11 points ahead of Mr Norris’s 26%. When the crucial second preference votes are taken into account, this translates into 55% to the Tory candidate’s 45%. Among those who say they are most likely to vote, the Labour lead is cut to just three points. After second preferences, Mr Livingstone is just two points ahead on 51%…
Have any Politicalbetting.com users any idea why the price on Steve Norris has collapsed during the day. It was upto 17.5 at one stage and then went to below 9. Meanwhile the Ken Livingstone and Simon Hughes prices have risen sharply. At 1815 Ken was up to 1.1 – or double what was available just two days ago. Hughes was at 32 and Norris at 9.8 – a drop of nearly half on the day. We were expecting the final…
A report in the Evening Standard says that Labour’s internal polling is showing that this could be very tight on Thurday because the right wing vote is much more motivated to go to the polls than the rest. The report states:- The Evening Standard has learned that Labour’s own internal polling shows that a low turnout would mean a “very tight” fight with Mr Norris. The research reveals that Right-wing voters are much more fired up to use their ballot,…
Hughes moves up further in the polls On the face of it the decision of the RMT union to hold an Underground strike on June 10 – the day of the London Mayoral Election – would seem to be manner from heaven for the Norris and Hughes campaigns. Any reminder of Ken Livingstone’s left-wing links would seem to reinforce the determination of non-Labour voters to turn-out and that must be bad news for Ken. The whole Livingstone campaign has been…
. But the Tories are 6% ahead for the London Assembly . The latest poll putting Ken Livingstone 14% ahead might seem fatal to our London call that the election is very close but we have had nothing this time about turnout or 2nd preferences. We have not had, either, the deep probing about the affect of Ken being Labour candidate discussed here yesterday. Ken Livingstone might have been able to obliterate all reference to the fact that he is…
The conventional opinion polls got the London Mayoral Election so badly wrong in 2000 over-estimating Livingstone’s support that it’s no wonder that they’ve mostly avoided this June’s battle. There were six main polls in 2000 which showed leads over Steve Norris ranging from 34%-57% when on the day the margin was just 11.9%. The smallest error was a staggering 22%. Apart from one ICM survey reported in February the polling this time has been left to the internet pollster, YouGov….