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Category: UK Elections – others

Will Davis and Brown be the real winners in South Staffordshire?

Will Davis and Brown be the real winners in South Staffordshire?

How will the result impact on the Tory and Labour leadership races? The next political event that you can bet on is for who should represent South Staffordshire at Westminster on June 23rd – a ballot that had to be put back from May 5th and delayed the return to the Commons of veteran Tory MP, Patrick Cormack, because of the death of one of the candidates. Although there’s been very little media interest in the campaign poorish results for…

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Happy Birthday Merton, Mitcham and Morden

Happy Birthday Merton, Mitcham and Morden

Can the Tories end their 23 year old by-election famine? Unless you aspire to be in the higher echelons of political anoraks you can be excused for not knowing that today is the 23rd anniversary of the last occasion when the Tories won a seat from another party in a Westminster by-election. For you have to go right back to Thursday June 3 1982 – three years into Mrs. Thatcher’s first term – to find a Tory by-election gain. That…

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Will the spending restrictions stop an upset in South Staffs?

Will the spending restrictions stop an upset in South Staffs?

Can we expect a comfortable Tory majority with a very low turnout? With just three weeks to go before the South Staffordshire election that had to be postponed from May 5th because of the death of one of the candidates there are quite a number of betting markets now available. But anybody trying to forecast the outcome should be aware that this is not a by-election as we know it and that has big implications for the campaign. Steherts posted…

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Make money on a Labour vote slump in South Staffs?

Make money on a Labour vote slump in South Staffs?

Evens on 30% or less looks great value With less than a month to go before the electors of South Staffordshire get their chance to vote in the 2005 General Election more betting markets have now opened on the poll, incorrectly being described as a by-election, that had to be moved back from May 5th because of the death of the Liberal Democrat candidate. Even in the 2001 landslide the veteran Tory MP, Patrick Cormack, retained the seat with more…

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How good a pointer are local by-election results?

How good a pointer are local by-election results?

Be wary of the party spinners As we get nearer the General Election pundits and punters will be looking beyond the opinion polls to find pointers as to what is going on. One source that’s readily available are the results from the handful of local council by-elections that take place up and down the country almost every Thursday. For many years the results were aggregated and issued monthly as a sort of poll. These are real electors putting real votes…

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Hartlepool betting to continue until the declaration

Hartlepool betting to continue until the declaration

Follow the money to get early clues on which party has won? The Betfair betting exchange market on Hartlepool will continue throughout the day right upto the point in the early hours of tomorrow morning when the result is declared. If it’s like Brent East, Leicester South and Hodge Hill, the betting exchange market should be a good guide to what’s happening. As the day wears on the officials will start to get an idea of, first, what the turn-out…

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Hartlepool – it’s going to rain tomorrow

Hartlepool – it’s going to rain tomorrow

The weather forecast for Hartlepool tomorrow is for rain although it should clear by the evening. Quite what effect, if any, this will have on turnout or voting we do not know although the received wisdom is that it does not help Labour. A bigger effect on turnout, compared with the July contests, might be that it goes dark earlier in late September. Sunset in Hartlepool tomorrow is at 6.42 pm and it’s always harder for the parties to get…

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Where are Labour’s envelope stuffers?

Where are Labour’s envelope stuffers?

Is there betting value on the Lib Dems? As the Hartepool campaign goes into its final day the big question for political gamblers is whether there is any value in the prices available on the Lib Dems or is the by-election the certainty that the current Labour odds seem to indicate? All betting is about value. Are the chances of something happening better than the odds available – if they are then you have a value bet. Prices have moved…

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