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Category: UK Elections – others

Which leaders came out of yesterday best?

Which leaders came out of yesterday best?

Has Cameron got the most problems this morning? Judged by the standards of normal mid-term by elections the reduced Labour majorities in Ealing Southall and Sedgefield were sensational victories for Labour. To have kept its average vote share loss in both seats down to 10.7% was something that the party can take real comfort from. But these are not normal times and these cannot be judged as normal mid-term by elections. We have what’s being presented as a change of…

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Could the postal vote leak be pointing to a sensation?

Could the postal vote leak be pointing to a sensation?

Why have Labour called in the police if its not true? The very first intimation in February 2006 that something sensational was about to happen in the Dunfermline by election was when it started to emerge that the Lib Dems were doing well with the postal vote – which are opened and verified in front of party officials before the polls open. At the time I reported that amongst Lib Dems “There was a buzz amongst their workers after the…

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Seven reasons why Boris might be in with a chance

Seven reasons why Boris might be in with a chance

ONE The only electors whose views matter are the 30-40% of Londoners that bother to vote at local elections – a high level of name recognition could matter a lot. TWO The inherent element in the UK electoral system that skews General Elections in favour of Labour works in precisely the opposite way in the London Mayoral Election where it’s aggregate votes across the capital that count not seats. THREE There are substantially higher turn-out rates in outer Tory and…

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Could this man be London’s next Mayor?

Could this man be London’s next Mayor?

Would he have a chance of beating Ken? While everybody has been focussed on Gordon’s first PMQs the other political story that’s developing is a suggestion that Boris Johnson could be the Tory candidate for Mayor of London. According to BBC Online the suggestion follows the abortive attempt to engage the ex-BBC Director General Greg Dyke. Clearly who ever it is has to be a big character if the Tories are to have any chance of ending Ken Livingstyone’s eight…

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Betfair opens by election and leader exit markets

Betfair opens by election and leader exit markets

Could the issues all link together over Ming Campbell’s future? The Betfair betting exchange has opened five new political markets as part of its desire to increase the range of options available to punters. That there should be betting on the two by elections is no surprise but it’s good that the firm has wasted little time in setting them up. Even though Labour starts from extraordinarily strong positions in both seats, as the general election figures show, by elections…

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Could the by elections halt the Brown honeymoon?

Could the by elections halt the Brown honeymoon?

Is July a good by election month for the LDs? One of the big bets of the Gordon Brown era has been that “Labour losing a by election” might be the first to happen from a range of options listed by William Hill. Given that almost all the other items in the market – “Raith Rovers winning promotion”, “A full UK withdrawal from Iraq”, “Gordon and Sarah having another child” etc – seem far more remote the 10/1 that was…

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Thread 1: Could overturning this change the Scotland’s future?

Thread 1: Could overturning this change the Scotland’s future?

A two thread morning on PBC With the ramifications of Thursday elections continuing it is this result from Cunninghame North which might be the one that Labour seeks to use get back to its position previously unassailable position as the top party in Scotland. With such a very tight margin there are reports this morning that the ousted Labour MSP might mount a challenge in an effort to get the result over-turned. The case goes beyond the standard complaint following…

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Thread 2: Do the locals tell us much about a general election?

Thread 2: Do the locals tell us much about a general election?

Can we extrapolate in the way the Sunday Times does? Both the Sunday Times and the Sunday Telegraph carry projections this morning about what Thursday’s results would mean in general election terms. In the Telegraph Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde suggests that the CON-LAB-LD split was 40%-27%-26% which he suggests would give the Tories an overall majority of 20 seats. The Sunday Times projection of a 54 overall seat for the Tories is based on work by Professors Colin Rallings…

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