Browsed by
Category: UK Elections – others

Tory lead with YouGov now 20%

Tory lead with YouGov now 20%

More gloom for Gordon On an evening when several polls are expected the first one with hard information is just coming in. For the Sunday Times tomorrow YouGov reports the following shares with comparisons from the Sun YouGov survey taken last week. CON 45%(-4): LAB 25% (+2): LD 18% (+1) Even though this represents a substantial swingback to the government David Cameron, I’m sure, will be happy with a 20% margin. Other numbers from YouGov have Brown’s personal ratings at…

Read More Read More

Could Gemma eat into the Labour vote?

Could Gemma eat into the Labour vote?

How’s the Sun going to affect the voting dynamics? As we discussed on Thursday night there is a non-traditional candidate running in the Crewe and Nantwich by election who might just pick up enough votes to make a difference in the overall race. And this morning the Sun is going big this morning in its coverage of Gemma Garrett – the reigning Miss Great Britain who is standing as the “Beauties for Britain” candidate. Her basic platform that “I want…

Read More Read More

Is a Gordon 2008 exit wager the best C&N bet?

Is a Gordon 2008 exit wager the best C&N bet?

Will the PM’s £2.7bn gamble pay off? In the previous thread we looked at the latest betting on Crewe and Nantwich where the best you can get is 0.21/1 on the Conservative victory. I think that is going to happen but betting at that price – not my normal way of doing things. I am coming to a view that Gordon Brown has wagered so much on next Thursday that if Labour is defeated by a significant margin then the…

Read More Read More

Could there still be an upset at Crewe & Nantwich?

Could there still be an upset at Crewe & Nantwich?

…or have the punters got this one right? There were suggestions yesterday that Labour “private polling” was showing that the by election may not be the foregone conclusion that it appears. I am always suspicious of anything that party machines allow to be leaked – if they have such data then let the party publish it as was done in the London Mayoral race last February. If this is more than just spin to boost the morale of the troops…

Read More Read More

Who’s going to lose votes to Gemma in C&N?

Who’s going to lose votes to Gemma in C&N?

Could Miss Great Britain affect the by election outcome? One of the “other” candidates who might have an impact on Crewe and Nantwich is Gemma Garrett – Miss Great Britain. On the face of it the move seems like a PR stunt designed to boost her profile but, to her credit, she has started to campaign and has already got into a spat with Labour. Gemma says she is about “bringing beauty into politics and turning back the tide of…

Read More Read More

Darling gives Labour a boost in the Crewe betting

Darling gives Labour a boost in the Crewe betting

Could the revised tax plan stem the Tory surge? The chart shows the changes in the Labour betting price for Crewe and Nantwich, expressed as an implied probability, during a day which has seen the government trying to get out of the hole it has dug itself into over the 10% tax rate. Clearly Brown and his team were thinking of next week’s election when they decided to make the statement to try to shoot this particular fox. The only…

Read More Read More

How a Tory 12% Crewe lead became 4%

How a Tory 12% Crewe lead became 4%

Dealing with the ex-Labour supporters who said they “didn’t know” At last! We now have the full data from the ICM Crewe and Nantwich by-election poll and I have reproduced the most interesting feature above – how the original numbers produced a 12% lead with the Tories on 47% and what happened when they went through the “spiral of silence adjuster”. For what has happened here is that ICM has followed its standard practice and has allocated half of the…

Read More Read More

Don’t write off Labour’s “Toff” attacks?

Don’t write off Labour’s “Toff” attacks?

crewe.tv This could be a good strategy to get the vote out? Labour’s core strategy in Crewe and Nantwich to portray their main opponent as a “Tory Toff” has attracted a lot of criticism and has even proved a bit too rich for some contributors to LabourHome. The sight, as above, of Labour activists seeking to follow the Tory candidate dressed up as “Toffs” and the emphasis on his background in campaign leaflets has been the principle theme of the…

Read More Read More