Welsh Assembly election poll Result 2007 YouGov poll Jan 2011 YouGov Poll 02/03/11 YouGov poll 30/03/11 Constituency vote Labour 32% 45% 48% 47% Conservative 22% 21% 20% 21% Plaid Cymru 22% 21% 19% 17% Liberal Democrat 15% 7% 7% 8% Others 8% 6% 7% 7% Regional vote Labour 30% 41% 45% 45% Conservative 22% 20% 20% 20% Plaid Cymru 21% 21% 18% 16% Liberal Democrat 12% 8% 5% 8% UKIP 4% 4%…
The Sun Are the locals set to underpin the Labour leader? Yesterday morning I was accused of seeking “to manage expectation” when I speculated that Labour could be heading for a gain of 1000 or more seats in the local elections in England on May 5th. The poster, who clearly has close links with the party, said that “the last time he looked Labour was expecting gains of about 200”. Well if that is the case then Labour has a…
English local elections battleground May 2011 (Rallings and Thrasher LGC) CON defending LAB defending LD defending OTH defending Metropolitan boroughs: 815 seats in 36 councils 186 393 199 37 Unitary authorities: 1928 seats in total in 49 councils 909 501 380 138 District councils: 6647 seats in 194 councils 3931 726 1287 703 Total 9484 seats 5026 1620 1866 878 How will the parties do in the first test since the general? May 5th, just five and a half weeks…
Could the new system dilute the UKIP threat? I don’t usually pay much attention to local by-election results but this one from last night might cause some concerns in Tory ranks. A seat in Tunbridge Wells is lost following a huge surge in the UKIP vote while the Lib Dem support was not much down on what happened on general election day last year. It doesn’t take a skilled mathematician to work out that if the election had been under…
Welsh Assembly election poll (YouGov/ITV) Result 2007 Jan 2011 Mar 2011 Constituency vote Labour 32% 45% 48% Conservative 22% 21% 20% Plaid Cymru 22% 21% 19% Liberal Democrat 15% 7% 7% Others 8% 6% 7% Regional vote Labour 30% 41% 45% Conservative 22% 20% 20% Plaid Cymru 21% 21% 18% Liberal Democrat 12% 8% 5% UKIP 4% 4% 5% Green 4% 2% 4% Others 8% 4% 2% There’s a new YouGov poll out for…
BBC news Will these be the big English battles on May 5th One development that hasn’t been given much attention is the decision by Sir Peter Soulsby to resign his seat of Leicester South following his selection as Labour candidate in May’s first election for the Mayor of Leicester. What focus there has been on this has been on the parliamentary by-election – but isn’t his decision to abandon Westminster more interesting? For these elected mayor positions, which only exist…
Is turnout the only real issue? It’s election day with voters throughout Wales deciding on whether the Welsh Assembly should have greater law-making powers and in Barnsley Central where they’ll be deciding on a replacement for the former Labour MP who was sentenced to a year in jail over his expenses claims. The outcomes of both are forgone conclusions – there will be a big YES vote in Wales and Labour will romp home to a massive victory in Barnsley….
North Tyneside mayoral election 2005 Name 1st Choice Votes 1st choice  % 2nd Choice Votes 2nd choice % Final Labour John Lawrence Langford Harrison 34053 40.2 6407 61.6 40460 Conservative Linda Arkley 35467 41.8 3991 38.4 39458 Liberal Democrats Dr Joan Harvey 12761 15.1 N/A N/A N/A National Front Robert Nigel Batten 2470 2.9 N/A N/A N/A When an apparent winner became a loser The nearest elections Britain has got to AV have been in the the thirteen English councils where,…