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As Trump’s favourability ratings get worse there are now suggestions that he doesn’t want the nomination after all

As Trump’s favourability ratings get worse there are now suggestions that he doesn’t want the nomination after all

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Gaullup polling highlighting Trump's problem with the female half of the electorate. This trend is bad pic.twitter.com/dA5wXJdtQW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 1, 2016 These Ipsos Reuters favourability numbers don't look good for Donald Trump pic.twitter.com/1xKd33iVaR — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 1, 2016 There’s an interesting article by John Fund just out in National Review speculating that really Mr. Trump doesn’t want the nomination and what we are seeing at the moment is what it describes as “self-sabotage”. Fund observes:…

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After the latest Trump-Cruz blow-up David Herdson suggests a 50/1 punt on Kasich

After the latest Trump-Cruz blow-up David Herdson suggests a 50/1 punt on Kasich

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He could be the only one who can stop Trump It’s probably all over: the sex scandal now engulfing Ted Cruz means that Donald Trump is highly likely to be the Republicans’ nominee for president. Highly likely but not certain. The dilemmas of the Never Trump brigade as to what strategy to adopt in order to stop him have their answer; there’s only one possible. They must get behind John Kasich as soon as possible in order to deny Trump…

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After tonight the Republican race could be down to just Trump versus Cruz

After tonight the Republican race could be down to just Trump versus Cruz

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358 delegates at stake tonight in the GOP race Tonight’s a massive one in the fight for the Republican nomination. There are five big primaries with a total of 358 delegates at stake. To put that into context Trump currently leads Cruz by 460 to 370 and 1237 are required for victory. The states are:- Florida (99 delegates) North Carolina (72) Illinois (69) Ohio (66) Missouri (52). What makes this particularly interesting is that from today states can operate on…

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Why a brokered convention won’t stop Trump

Why a brokered convention won’t stop Trump

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The Republican nomination It is now Trump v Cruz. Lay anyone else. Let’s talk brokered conventions, always a topic to set the pulses of political anoraks racing. We can deal with the Democrats briefly. Bernie might take Hillary all the way to the convention but if he does, he’ll lose just as she did against Obama eight years ago. It’s quite possible that Sanders will deny Clinton the victories she needs to assure herself of the nomination without superdelegates but…

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Trump & Boris: Both blond, both born in New York and both under-perform in the polls

Trump & Boris: Both blond, both born in New York and both under-perform in the polls

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There’s a interesting post tonight by Ron Faucheux on the US site The Hill highlighting the fact that in recent primaries Donald Trump has been doing worse than the polling. He writes: ” A comparison of pre-primary polls to the actual ballots cast on March 1 showed clear evidence of Trump’s eleventh-hour slippage: The last two polls taken in Virginia gave Trump an average 14 percentage point lead. On primary day, he won by a mere 3 points. The last…

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Cruz wins the most delegates tonight but it looks like tonight was goodnight Rubio Saturday

Cruz wins the most delegates tonight but it looks like tonight was goodnight Rubio Saturday

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It looks like the GOP establishment plan to stop Trump, as embodied by Mitt Romney, might be working, but is it too late? Summary of tonight's results. GOP: 2 states apiece for Trump & Cruz. Cruz gets the most delegates. pic.twitter.com/1qPi0H2Lt0 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 6, 2016 After Super Tuesday Trump moved to an 83% implied chance on Betfair for nomination. Now a 64% implied chance pic.twitter.com/0eo6Tf6u70 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 6, 2016 A fortnight ago Cruz was 70 on…

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Early indications are that Trump not going to have all his own way in the 4 states deciding today

Early indications are that Trump not going to have all his own way in the 4 states deciding today

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Real Clear Politics In Kansas he’s doing much worse than the polls Trump was 6% up in final Kansas poll. With 65% of votes counted he's 27% behind. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2016 After Super Tuesday Trump moved to an 83% chance on Betfair for nomination. Latest price 53% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 5, 2016

Don’t expect anything to come of the GOP’s establishment effort to stop Trump

Don’t expect anything to come of the GOP’s establishment effort to stop Trump

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David Herdson on the US race The next rounds take place this weekend with four states electing delegates for the Republicans (Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Maine) and four for the Democrats (Kansas,Louisiana,Maine and Nebraska). Much has been made of the apparent desire of the GOP establishment to stop Trump. Don’t expect it to come to anything. The fact that there are two competing and opposing strategies to stop the Donald should reveal that both are inherently weak. The first strategy,…

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