Via @PaulWaugh Bristol Post report of giant mural in cityhttps://t.co/JtI6NKIGVk pic.twitter.com/Z2SGOLDVji — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 24, 2016 Winner 2016 White House Race Next CON leader
It’s time to take the prospect of him winning outright seriously No-one has got rich betting against Donald Trump this election campaign and now is unlikely to be the time to start. He’s currently best-priced at 5/2 with Ladbrokes, which in a two-horse race implies a serious weakness on his part. In many ways, he is a seriously weak candidate. He’s never held any public office before, never mind elected public office. He has very little active support from within…
Via @Politicalwire How Trump is close the gap with Hillary in national polling average pic.twitter.com/ugjMw0xsJS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 17, 2016 The polling average in the chart from PoliticalWire tells its own story. This is beginning to look as though next November’s election is set to be very tight. What’s happening with the Republicans is that the party has an election to fight in six months time and it is coming together to get behind the presumptive nominee. If…
James Burt (TheWhiteRabbit) looks at the battle Following Trump’s crushing victory in five north-eastern states on Tuesday, attention has now turned to next week’s GOP primary in Indiana. Indiana could prove a critical state on the route to Trump securing the nomination. There are ten states left to go to the polls, but four are ‘winner take all’ states where the result is foregone. Another three allocate their delegates proportionally, which means the difference between good and bad performances is…
Trump and Clinton look set to win but it’s all about delegates In recent days there’s been a big improvement in Trump’s betting position following his disappointment in Wisconsin two weeks when he dropped to below a 50%. Here in New York it’s all about delegates in the GOP race where Trump needs to win as many of the 27 congressional as possible. Overall in the state there are 95 delegates at stake.A total of 1237, as we keep on…
Trump’s amateur approach is costing him the election Back in October, I tipped Ted Cruz for the Republican nomination as a trading bet. As always with such bets, the trick is trading out at the right time. So with Cruz now at less than 2/1 across the board, when is that time? The simple answer is ‘not yet’. In a normal year, a candidate in Trump’s position would have the nomination near-enough sown up. Although he’ll probably fall short of…
And if it is, then what? It is something of an irony that after months of saying outrageous things and winning more and more support off the back of it, Trump’s downfall might well be due to a sensible answer. There is, after all, nothing unusual or wrong in the principle that people who break the law should be punished. If it doesn’t feel right to apply the punishment, chances are the law shouldn’t be there in the first place….
Will Trump rise to the occasion? Betting on the Republican nominee and related markets has been a mix of the interesting, surreal and downright bizarre. The betting overreaction to Marco Rubio finishing third in Iowa and becoming the favourite for the nomination was a particular highlight and profitable for many. But the GOP nomination contest has been marked by a certain viciousness between the candidates, with Donald Trump giving Ted Cruz the epithet Lyin’ Ted Cruz, whilst the cherry on…