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Category: Donald Trump

With Trump in trouble a look at the best betting markets

With Trump in trouble a look at the best betting markets

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While we have been mostly focused on the high octane politics currently in the UK there’ve been big developments in the US which raise questions over whether Donald Trump will win a second term in November 2020. Earlier in the week the Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi started the impeachment process in the House of Representatives. As well as everything else what is driving this is what the President said to the PM of Ukraine in an effort to get what…

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This is bigly yuge

This is bigly yuge

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NBC News has confirmed: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will announce later today that she now backs a formal impeachment inquiry, according to two Democratic sources close to her. https://t.co/sZpxsW3GPB — Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) September 24, 2019 I must confess I wasn’t expecting Trump to be impeached during his first term, given the make up of the Senate and the high bar to convict a President the Democratic Party controlled House of Representatives would not begin impeachment hearings but as NBC…

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How special is special? The US-UK relationship

How special is special? The US-UK relationship

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Be honest. How many G7 summits do you remember? How many are little more than talking shops with the same old photos of largely the same old characters? Last year’s summit, for instance, was mostly memorable for that photo of a defensive obstinate Trump surrounded by an exasperated Merkel and others. And this year? We have the sight of Trump showing off his latest pet, our very own Prime Minister, laughing a little too keenly  at the President’s bon mots (or…

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Former White House Coms Director predicts Trump will quit WH2020 race by March

Former White House Coms Director predicts Trump will quit WH2020 race by March

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Could it be that the President won’t be the nominee? Over the weekend I’ve placed of bets at effectively about 10/1 that Trump will not be the Republican nominee at WH2020. I’ve done this by laying Trump on the Betfair 2020 nominee market. This has been prompted by two developments. First there have been the public comments of former White House Coms Director, Anthony Scaramucci, who has been infuriating Trump over the last few days with a series of TV…

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Trump and the inverted yield curve

Trump and the inverted yield curve

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    President Trump would seem to have an advantage over whoever the Democrats select as his 2020 challenger: since the Second World War, nine elected presidents have sought a second term, and seven of them succeeded. The two exceptions were Jimmy Carter in 1980, and George H. W. Bush in 1992. In both cases, the US economy was performing badly in the lead-up to the election. US voters seem to be indulgent towards their incumbent presidents, but less so…

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Is Trump really just a 17% chance to be impeached?

Is Trump really just a 17% chance to be impeached?

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Graphic – Recent YouGov polling on impeaching Trump Impeachment is a legal procedure, with an indictment delivered by the House and a trial conducted by the Senate. But, assuming that there is a plausible yet arguable case for it, the procedure naturally resolves itself into a political process like any other. To recap, impeachment is defined as the House passing one or more articles of impeachment, by a simple majority vote. The House has 435 voting members, of which 235 are…

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What does the UK’s next PM have to say about Trump’s latest racist Tweets?

What does the UK’s next PM have to say about Trump’s latest racist Tweets?

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No doubt he’ll be pressed at his first PMQs One of the current big political issues in Washington at the moment is a series of Trump Tweets yesterday attacking elected female Democratic members of Congress for their criticism of him particularly over the regime he’s imposed on immigrants in border camps. The Tweets above are part of his response and are probably the most overtly racist public comments that he’s made. The fact that his focus is on elected prominent…

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Might Trump be impeached after leaving office?

Might Trump be impeached after leaving office?

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Losing in 2020 might just be the start of the game Obscure corners of the US constitution were made for delving into, particularly when they interact with a scenario which is not wholly implausible: in this case, a post-presidency impeachment. “Hang on”, you might say; “doesn’t impeachment, if successfully carried, involve the loss of office? In which case it would be pointless for someone who’s already gone?”. Yes, it does – but that’s not all it does, which is what…

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