Trump’s not having a very good day, but will it impact the election result? I’m not so sure
TSE
WH2020: How Trump and Biden are viewing COVID19 very differently
Going postal: Could a Democrat victory end up lost in the post?
This is why Trump is trying to stop the US Postal Service from processing ballot papers: The partisan split in how Americans would like to vote is immense.– 17% who back Trump prefer to vote by mail– 58% who back Biden prefer the mail option. pic.twitter.com/notTbOjOVu — David Herdson (@DavidHerdson) August 14, 2020 A funding crisis, a hollowing out of capacity and much greater demands could stretch the USPS to breaking point There are six general processes that need to…
So far the Kamala Harris announcement hasn’t impacted on the WH2020 betting
So far there has been very little polling carried out after yesterday’s big announcement that Kamala Harris will be the nominee for VP. In the betting markets the news, which has been widely covered in the US, has hardly moved Biden is seen as about a 60% chance. Last night there was a big event, alas without an audience, in which Harris gave her first big speech since she got on the ticket and however you arrange things this is…
With 93 days to go Trump is going to have to do better than this explaining the US’s COVID19 numbers
Latest betting gives him a 35% chance of retaining his job As the the Daily Beast reports: ..the clip appears to show that Trump has genuinely managed to convince himself that his response to the coronavirus pandemic has been effective—because he only considers partial and deceptively flattering statistics to be true. Brandishing childishly simplistic, brightly colored COVID-19 graphs presumably provided to him by aides trying to keep him happy, Trump proudly tells Axios’ Jonathan Swan that the U.S. is ‘lower than the…
Trump’s attack on voting by post might be making his defeat more likely
New polling suggests he’s creating a problem for his party The huge attacks on postal voting that we are hearing from the White House at the moment could in fact lead to fewer Trump supporters actually voting than Biden ones. With the pandemic still sweeping large parts of the US many individual states have been prepared for many more voters to want to cast their ballots in the November 3rd election without exposing themselves to the risk that going to…
Some succour for Trump: Exactly four years ago today Betfair punters rated Hillary Clinton’s chances a lot higher than they do Joe Biden’s today
The chart atop this thread is from exactly four years ago showing that Betfair punters were effectively saying Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning the 2016 election were 72%, as we can see in the chart below Biden’s chances are around 62%. I’ve written in the past the terrible predictive abilities of the betting markets when it comes to politics, perhaps we might see that again, after all on election night Hillary Clinton’s chances went north of 90%. Perhaps the value…
Some Trump (sore) loser bets
StarSports have some markets up on what Trump might do about the 2020 election. I’m not touching the 8/1 on the 2020 election not to take place given the constitutional and legal impediments make it close to impossible to delay the election, even if Trump had a pliable House and Senate. The likes of Mitch McConnell have made it clear they won’t back a delay to the election. The 3/1 on Trump losing the election and refusing to leave office…