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Category: Donald Trump

Who will win the first Presidential debate?

Who will win the first Presidential debate?

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Ladbrokes have a market up on the first scheduled Presidential debate for the end of September and my first instinct is to back Biden. Success equals performance minus anticipation and thanks to the Trump and his campaign they’ve lowered the bar for ‘Sleepy Joe’ so low that not even a baby Hobbit could walk under that bar. Then there’s what the Trump campaign have been up to President Donald Trump’s campaign launched a series of Facebook ads on Thursday featuring…

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The betting markets continue to rate Trump’s re-election chances far too highly

The betting markets continue to rate Trump’s re-election chances far too highly

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The president’s polling retains a rock-hard ceiling, too low At the start of February, Donald Trump looked well set for re-election. True, his personal ratings weren’t great and nor were his head-to-heads against both Biden and Sanders, the two Democrats who’d shared the lead in the race for their party’s nomination for the previous three months. Even so, the economy was roaring ahead with record job numbers, America was near-enough out of foreign wars, and the attempt to impeach him…

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Poll of US servicemen and women finds Trump has lost the Military vote. Biden has a 4% lead

Poll of US servicemen and women finds Trump has lost the Military vote. Biden has a 4% lead

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AT WH2016 the military went for Trump over Clinton by almost two to one Given some of the noises coming from the Oval Office at the moment this poll of men and women serving in the US military could be hugely significant for Trump who seems to have lost the support of active service troops. What makes this very important is that last time the 2016 Military Times Poll, found twice as many respondents said they planned to vote for Trump…

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Whatever the WH2020 polls might be saying punters continue to bet heavily on Trump

Whatever the WH2020 polls might be saying punters continue to bet heavily on Trump

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This battle is far from over We are just starting to see serious analysis of the Trump campaign following his party’s virtual convention this week. The New York Times had this key observation of the Trump campaign approach: The Republican convention this week marked an extraordinary effort to recast President Trump’s image on issues of race and gender, with the party stretching to find African-Americans who would testify that Mr. Trump is not racist, and lining up women to describe…

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Kamala Harris looks set have a bigger role in this White House campaign than previous VP picks

Kamala Harris looks set have a bigger role in this White House campaign than previous VP picks

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She’s the Democrat making big set piece attacks on Trump’s big night One of the undoubted weaknesses of the Democrats as we go into the next phase of the White House Race is the age of Joe Biden and that he can often appear to be old. If he won he’d be 78 on Inauguration Day. His apparent frailty has already become a major attack line for the Republicans who don’t just want to retain the White House in November…

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Trump edges up even more on Betfair and now a 45.5% chance

Trump edges up even more on Betfair and now a 45.5% chance

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Could they soon be level? Even though the polls continue to have Biden with a significant lead over Trump punters remain increasingly convinced that this is a much tighter race than the data might appear. The latest prices on the Betfair Exchange have Trump moving up to a 45.5% chance and there is still some way to go before the GOP convention closes late on Thursday night US time. Again the thinking of the Trump backers is dominated by their…

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Ahead of this week’s Republican convention Trump’s approval ratings remain dire

Ahead of this week’s Republican convention Trump’s approval ratings remain dire

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Above is the latest RCP table showing the most recent Trump approval ratings. In the US more attention is paid to these in Presidential contests than to voting polls and the trend above for the incumbent is not good. With the exception is the Republican-friendly pollster, Rasmussen, all the other surveys have dire numbers for Trump and there is no precedent for an incumbent with such disapproval levels getting re-elected. Of course most Americans are only just now starting to…

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