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Category: Tories

Is Michael Howard really in a big hole?

Is Michael Howard really in a big hole?

Are Peter Kellner’s benchmarks correct? The political commentator and head of the YouGov polling organisation, Peter Kellner, has posted an article asking this question – How deep a hole are the Tories in? He starts:- The short answer is: very. Here are some benchmarks by which to judge the Conservatives. Their vote share in 1997: 31%. In 2001: 33%. Needed to form a bare majority in the House of Commons: at least 40%. Needed six months before the start of…

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What are we to make of Maurice Saatchi’s make-over for the Tories ?

What are we to make of Maurice Saatchi’s make-over for the Tories ?

Can he repeat the 1979 magic? The Conservative Conference this week has been the first public “outing” for the new re-branded party that’s been created by the new Co-Chairman, Maurice Saatchi – one of the legendry advertising guru brothers behind the 1979 election campaign that led the Tories to victory and heralded the start of the Thatcher era. The Saatchi skill is in finding the phrase and the image that encapsulates the public mood. The new “low key” non-controversial look…

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Are there short-term profits to be made on the Tories?

Are there short-term profits to be made on the Tories?

Cashing in on changes in market sentiment With UKIP losing its major donor and a reasonably favourable reaction to Michael Howard’s conference speech could this be the time to back the Conservatives on the spread markets? One of the great features of betting exchanges and spread markets is that you can make money by betting short-term on your assessment of market sentiment – not on the ultimate outcome. And we believe that sentiment is going to move one or two…

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Could Welshman Howard be flying the England Flag?

Could Welshman Howard be flying the England Flag?

What about a market on which party will win England? Given the fact that the overall General Election markets are almost a foregone conclusion why not a market on which party will have most of England’s 529 MPs after the General Election? A crumb of comfort for Michael Howard is that the Lib Dems’ ability to take votes and seats off Labour puts this goal within sight. If the Lib Dems just do as well in the General Election as…

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Smart punters should stick with Tony

Smart punters should stick with Tony

UPDATE NOON Ignore the post by-elections odds changes on Blair and Labour After Labour losing its parliamentary seat in Leicester South to the Liberal Democrats but holding Birmingham Hodge Hill with a majority in hundreds rather than thousands smart punters should stick with Tony Blair even though the response of the markets has been against him and Labour. The William Hill price on Blair going before the General Election is down to 5/4 and Labour’s odds have lengthened. We disagree…

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Labour’s back in the black..

Labour’s back in the black..

But will they lose Leicester South and if so – who to? After a few uncomfortable weeks when the spread betting gamblers on the Commons seat market had put Labour at below the level where they would have a Commons majority the latest spreads have the party comfortably above the 324 seat target – which gives them an absolute majority. Labour 325-335 Conservative 245-255 LIBd 52-57 This is in response to the pre-Euro Election opinion polls showing increased support for…

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Could reverse tactical voting open the door for Michael Howard?.

Could reverse tactical voting open the door for Michael Howard?.

Need the Tories be so gloomy about the Westmister seat distribution? A number of Tory supporters are seeking to raise their General Election hopes by suggesting that the Westminster seat distribution that seems so skewed to Labour might not be as bad for them as it appear. There’s been a particular focus that this factor could be partially off-set by the anti-Tory tactical voting of 1997 and 2001 “unwinding”. Could this happen and what would be the effect? A major…

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Avoid being tempted by Michael Howard

Avoid being tempted by Michael Howard

At the end of a difficult period for Tony Blair it’s tempting to bet on the Tories to win most seats at the General Election. The prices look good value and Labour is expected to take a real drubbing in the “Super Thursday” local, London and Euro Elections on June 10. The mood is being reinforced by the way Michael Howard has been able to pursue the Government on Iraq. As Robin Cook writes in the Independent today “Howard may…

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