Browsed by
Category: Tories

The Leadership battle – the first six months

The Leadership battle – the first six months

Will the Sundays kill off the Cameron challenge? As our chart shows the first six months of the battle to replace Michael Howard as Tory leader has seen huge swings between the front-runners. What the graph illustrates is the implied probability of success based on the best betting prices available. Even though this is the final weekend of the first phase this contest is still very difficult to call and much could depend on what is in tomorrow’s papers. Will…

Read More Read More

Who’ll benefit from the drugs question?

Who’ll benefit from the drugs question?

Is the main impact just to raise Cameron’s profile? Following David Cameron’s appearance on Question Time last night and reports that the Mail Group is “seeking to dig up the dirt” on him the big question before the crucial first ballot is who all this is helping and who is being hurt? Watching the Shadow Education Secretary’s response on Question Time last night and the reaction of the audience I could not help but think that the main impact of…

Read More Read More

FOUR men: TWO to the final – TWO to be dropped

FOUR men: TWO to the final – TWO to be dropped

How the betting markets are rating the candidates Our latest chart showing the implied probability of victory based on the best betting prices shows the fortunes of the four still in the race over the past seven days. The big loser at the moment is the former Chancellor and contender in 1997 and 2001, Ken Clarke. He’s seen further slippage today and might not even make the second MPs ballot next Thursday. A further blow was the Cameron campaign announcing…

Read More Read More

Cameron’s price tightens after surviving hustings test

Cameron’s price tightens after surviving hustings test

The Tory hopefuls face their first scrutiny by fellow MPs The first big test for the Tory hopefuls at Westminster – a hustings meeting organised by the right-wing 92 Group – has led to a tightening of the David Cameron price, and a slight easing of that available on Liam Fox following his move forward earlier after getting the backing of the “Cornerstones”. Each of the four candidates was “grilled” by an audience of about 50 MPs for about 25…

Read More Read More

Is there any betting value in the Tory race?

Is there any betting value in the Tory race?

David Cameron Best bookie price 8/11: Best betting exchange 1.02/1. Stormed up the betting last week from a 10/1 outsider to an odds-on favourite. In spite of several polls showing big lead amongst Tories he still has to get over the MPs’ ballot – the first round of which closes on Tuesday. Being just 39 and only having completed four full years in the Commons might make it hard to win over enough MPs. It is conceivable that he will…

Read More Read More

…and then there were four….

…and then there were four….

Rifkind pulls out – Cameron’s price eases As had been widely predicted the former Foreign Secretary who returned to the House in May after a gap of eight years, Sir Malcom Rifkind, has pulled out of the Tory leadership race. He said he wanted the party to be led by a One Nation Conservative which is thought to mean that he will line up behind his cabinet colleague in last Tory Government, Ken Clarke. The move makes next Tuesday’s first…

Read More Read More

More poll gloom for David Davis

More poll gloom for David Davis

How big a mountain has the former front runner got to climb? A Populus Poll in the Times in the morning has more gloomy news for David Davis with big falls on previous surveys by the same pollster. It follows the same trend as the recent YouGov and ICM polls which have all recorded a big switch to David Cameron in recent days. When Tory voters were asked who would make best leader it was Cameron 33% (+30): Clarke 33%…

Read More Read More

Are you ready for the Cameron media love-in?

Are you ready for the Cameron media love-in?

Could the hype shift the General Election markets? David Cameron’s progress in the past eight days has been staggering and although hurdles remain his political-savvy campaign team are going to do everything they can not to let the current opportunity go. If he does succeed Michael Howard then he’ll be the first party leader ever to have had a background in public relations before entering parliament – a fact not without significance. His day job in the years before the…

Read More Read More