How big a mountain has the former front runner got to climb?

A Populus Poll in the Times in the morning has more gloomy news for David Davis with big falls on previous surveys by the same pollster. It follows the same trend as the recent YouGov and ICM polls which have all recorded a big switch to David Cameron in recent days.

When Tory voters were asked who would make best leader it was Cameron 33% (+30): Clarke 33% (-22): Davis 12% (-4) and Fox 7%. The comparisons are from a similar poll in September

If it was Cameron and Davis in the final two the former would win by 45-15%.

A Clarke -Davis final two would give it to the former Chancellor by 47-35%.

Back in July the same pollster had Davis beating Cameron by 50 to 16% – so there has been a huge turnround. Amongst non-Tories the polls had Cameron with a 12 point lead.

Unlike the YouGov survey which was restricted to known party members the Populus polls has a much broader sample so might not be as relevant to those trying to call the race. The numbers, however, are in the same area.

The survey itself was carried out at the weekend when the Cameron hype in the media was at its highest. It might be that once this settles down then the numbers might change.

The challenge for the Davis camp is that the task of getting their declared MP supporters to vote for him in a week’s time might be more challenging if the numbers remain so far down.

The main message from this is that even if Davis gets to the final two he’s got a big fight on his hands unless there is a dramatic change in support levels.

Latest Leadership Betting – 0600 BST
Best betting exchange prices; Cameron 0.86/1: Davis 2.4/1: Clarke 8.4/1: Fox 9.5/1
Best bookmaker prices; Cameron 8/13: Davis 15/8: Clarke 6/1: Fox 10/1

Mike Smithson