CON 45 (+5) LAB 26 (nc) LD 18 (-5) At last a survey where certainty to vote is key! We have been so overwhelmed by YouGov and YouGov-related surveys (PoliticHome and BPIX) that it comes as something of as relief to get some numbers from one of the leading phone pollsters with a track record going back decades. A key element with ICM is weighting by certainty to vote – something which YouGov doesn’t do and which I believe is…
How do these numbers fit with your article Professor? My apologies for returning to this subject but I feel I ought to raise yet again the issue of Blair’s 1996/97 polls ratings which are referred to in a commentary on the Mail BPIX poll by Anthony King, professor of government at Essex University. writes:- “…However, the findings still indicate that the road ahead for the Tories may be rocky. Not only is the Conservatives’ lead over Labour not nearly as…
CON 44% (+4) LAB 27% (-4) LD 17%(-1) The tracker sees Labour’s deficit increase by 8 points Long-standing regulars will know that for years I’ve argued that that there is a close correlation between the amount of coverage that Cameron gets on TV and his party’s poll ratings. So after the “saturation-Cameron” coverage around his big speech ahead of the field-work for the latest YouGov tracker what happens? Of course. The Tories see their share moving to 44% all at…
Or has Cameron provided the ammunition for Labour? The critical element about party leaders’ big conference speeches ahead of general elections is that they define the big message that will be put to the voters and the core proposition on which they will be asking the public to vote for them. Several of the papers this morning pick out the Cameron approach to big government and the state as their view of the over-arching theme and, indeed, the way they…
And what about the plan to give them more powers? One announcement at the Tory conference has the side effect of creating more elections which are likely to lead to more betting markets during a period when these will be quite scarce. A big betting occasion will be twelve referenda, all taking place on the same day, in leading English cities on whether to have an elected mayor or not. The idea of a “big bang” like this seems designed…
Will this muddy the waters in the electoral reform debate? It’s surprising that with electoral reform being pushed up the election agenda by Labour, the comments by Tory chairman, Eric Pickles, in his conference speech don’t seemed to have attracted much attention. For under the banner of the Lib Dem “fair votes” rhetoric Pickles is pressing for the Tory version of electors reform which involves cutting the numbers of seats and having fresh boundary reviews after each general election. Acknowledging…
Could Osborne’s plan cost the Tories votes? The front page of the Daily Mail sets the scene and the tone for today’s big news – the announcement from shadow chancellor, George Osborne that from 2016 the male retirement age will be moved from 65 to 66. This means that many in their late 50s who were looking forward to retirement and their pension in only a few years are going to find they they’ll have to wait a year longer….
BBC Newsnight 16 minutes in And is Darling helping the Tories move on from Lisbon? If you didn’t watch BBC 2’s Newsnight last night then check it out on the BBC IPlayer – 16 minutes in. This is one of the most enjoyable Paxman interviews for a long time and will rank, surely, alongside his famous encounters with Michael Howard and John Reid. The issue, of course, is the Lisbon Treaty and what the Tories would do if on winning…