CON 37% (40) LAB 32 % (32) LD 19% (16) MORI has the gap down to just 5 The first MORI poll for the Telegraph has more bad news for the Tories and will certainly add to the early election fervour. For the gap is down to just five points which on the conventional UNS calculators could mean Labour having most seats in a hung parliament. There’s no getting away from it – this is seriously bad news for Cameron…
Ipsos-MORI Is it really so different in the marginals? I’m just catching up with the Ipsos-MORI aggregate data for all its 2009 polls which have been highlighted by Anthony Wells at UKPR who is suggesting it provides further evidence that opinion is moving differently in the LAB>CON marginals. For what MORI has done is not only to show the aggregate data but to identify the shares by seat category with a particular emphasis on the marginals – something that is…
Twitter Will this ease the jitters at Cameron Towers? Barely 13 hours after the Telegraph’s YouGov poll (HAT-TIP Sam) showing the Tories lead down to just 7% there’s a new survey just out for tomorrow’s People. The figures are:- CON 40% (38) LAB 31% (31) LD 18%(19) So for the third YouGov poll in a row the Labour shares stays on 31% while the Tories recoup the two points that were lost in the overnight survey. There’s not a lot…
York Outer – 0.44% (Lab 27%) Romsey & Southampton N: 0.46% (Lab 10.9%) Cheltenham: 0.66% (Lab 11.8%) Eastleigh: 1.12% (Lab 21.1%) Westmorland & Lonsdale: 1.7% (Lab 7.8%) Hereford & N Herefordshire: 2.4% (Lab 10.2%) Carshalton & Wallington: 2.93% (Lab 17.3%) Taunton Deane: 3.3% (Lab 12.1%) Chippenham: 4.7% (Lab 16.8%) Leeds NW: 5% (Lab 31.9%) Torbay: 6% (Lab 14.5%) Sutton & Cheam: 6.2% (Lab 11.8%) Camborne & Redruth: 7.1% (Lab 25.6%) Richmond Park: 7.1% (Lab 9.25%%) Cheadle: 7.4% (Lab 9.9%) Portsmouth…
CON 40 % (40) LAB 29 % (30) LD 21 %(18) And Clegg’s Lib Dems go up 3 to 21 The Guardian’s ICM poll for January is just out and has the Tories constant with Labour down a point and the Lib Dems up three. The changes are against the last published survey from the pollster just over a week ago and come after a period of sustained pressure from Labour on the Tory marriage plans. On that specific issue…
Is the ‘policy a day’ crowding Labour out of the spotlight? If the purpose of a media campaign is to get noticed and get talked about, then the Cameron/NHS posters have been a remarkable success: from spoof versions going viral on the web to questions on Mock the Week to references by Gordon Brown in PMQ’s, the posters have gained attention way beyond most political campaigns. One effect of not just the Tory NHS poster campaign but also the proposals…
Will Tory fundraising make victory more likely? Perhaps the key element of the first day of the campaign was the realisation that the Tories have got a lot more money to play with and are ready to invest heavily in outdoor advertising. We got the first taste yesterday with the NHS poster campaign said to be costing £400,000. What a contrast with Labour’s news in the Times this morning that it is facing potential bankruptcy and is expecting to be…
And could Cameron be creating hostages to fortune? Wow. What a busy morning. Is it going to be like this right through to the general election day whenever that is? What’s caught my eye is this Tory NHS poster and the way all the emphasis is put on Cameron – “I’ll cut the deficit. Not the NHS” Is this going to be a common element in other campaign material? Clearly this has been through the focus groups and reflects what…