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Could Nadine jump ship to UKIP? It’s now evens that an MP will defect before the general election

Could Nadine jump ship to UKIP? It’s now evens that an MP will defect before the general election

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Could Nadine’s suspension provoke her into switching to UKIP? Has the chief whip been too harsh? bit.ly/RGG3cR twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 6, 2012 Her suspension might just provoke a switch Ladbrokes have tonight tightened the odds to evens that there’ll be a defection to UKIP during this parliament. This follows the move by the Chief Whip to suspend Nadine Dorries as a Conservative MP because she’s taking part in he latest series of “I’m a celebrity get me…

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The change in public opinion that the blues should most fear: The return of the “Toxic Tories”

The change in public opinion that the blues should most fear: The return of the “Toxic Tories”

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The rise of Tory toxicity? Ipsos-MORI data from 2007-2012 showing like and dislike of the Conservative party. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 28, 2012 Over the last couple of days there’s been a lot of focus on the Ipsos-MORI finding that more people now dislike David Cameron than like him. The same polling also produced findings on like and dislike of the Conservative party itself which were, perhaps, more worrying for the party. The chart above based on Ipsos-MORI…

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Ashcroft poll shows Labour heading for big victory in Louise Mensch’s old seat

Ashcroft poll shows Labour heading for big victory in Louise Mensch’s old seat

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Pie chart show how vote splits in Aschroft’s Corby by-election poll. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2012 Just 48% of the Corby voters who supported Louise Mensch in 2010 tell Ashcroft’s poll that they’ll vote CON in by-election. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2012 Surprisingly given national polls only 5% of 2010 CON voters in Corby say they’ll be voting UKIP. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2012 Just 2 out of 1,503 sample tell Ashcroft’s Corby…

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After the Mitchell resignation David Herdson asks: Who lied?

After the Mitchell resignation David Herdson asks: Who lied?

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The Mail brings all the negative stories for the government into one common theme. Not good for Number 10. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 20, 2012 Who can’t we trust: a minister or a PC? Andrew Mitchell did not resign because he swore at a policeman. For all that such a comment might be unacceptable, he’d probably have survived had that been all that the story was about. One aspect would have been the jobsworth nature of the officer…

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A well received speech from Cameron – but the Tories still have a huge challenge even to win most seats next time

A well received speech from Cameron – but the Tories still have a huge challenge even to win most seats next time

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At the start of the week the President of YouGov, Peter Kellner, declared that the Conservatives would “need a miracle” to win an majority at the next election. As things stand at the moment that must be right. Even protecting the 100 or so gains secured in 2010 is going to be a mammoth task and Labour are firm favourites in the betting to win most seats if not a majority. Yet today’s speech had a lot of merits. Cameron…

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Michael Ashcroft is right to raise questions about this Tory campaign

Michael Ashcroft is right to raise questions about this Tory campaign

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ConservativeHome Substance is more important than trivial games Earlier this week Michael Ashcroft wrote an insightful post for ConHome attacking the campaign poster which the Tories produced for the Labour conference. He described it as a silly stunt which does not sit easily with the qualities a party of government should be able to claim for itself. He goes on:”.. The next election will be decided in marginal seats by often people who will in many cases be anxious and…

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The media should have been more sceptical about the pre-LAB conference Tory-funded Populus poll?

The media should have been more sceptical about the pre-LAB conference Tory-funded Populus poll?

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Why did the Guardian & others give it coverage Last Saturday in what appeared to be a very aggressive move the Conservative party published the findings of a survey about Ed Miliband and Labour that it had commissioned from Populus. Unlike the firm’s standard voting intention surveys the poll was carried out online. Several papers including the Guardian and the Times gave it quite a bit of coverage and all added to the narrative about Ed Miliband. Populus, of course,…

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Conference season will be looked at through the prism of leadership issues

Conference season will be looked at through the prism of leadership issues

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Everything contenders say will be scrutinised & magnified Just six days to be before the start of the 2012 party conference season and my betting is that leadership issues will be a common theme at at least two and possibly three of them. We’ve seen the media obsession with both Boris and Vince and with Labour Ed Miliband has yet to fully convince the home team. An indication that there might be trouble ahead is that with the Tories and…

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