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Data specialist Stephen Dunn gives his assessment of the Tory party hire of Jim Messina

Data specialist Stephen Dunn gives his assessment of the Tory party hire of Jim Messina

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Jim Messina – the ex-Obama strategist now advising the Tories pic.twitter.com/BnFcbbdlHO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2013 Is it different over here compared with the US? Jim Messina, who was chief campaign manager for Barak Obama’s 2012 election campaign, has recently been recruited to assist the Tories with their 2015 campaign. This has attracted lots of attention and comment. Jim is known for utilising the power of “Big Data” – Massive, indivualised datasets that, allow fantastically detailed contact with…

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What we need is some Lynton Crosby betting

What we need is some Lynton Crosby betting

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Lynton Crosby said to be planning covert war against UKIP http://t.co/x5bXb2Z0Zq pic.twitter.com/2K8msVB726 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 5, 2013 Is he going to survive all the way to GE2015? For me the most interesting political story of the weekend was the Sunday Times piece, linked to in the Tweet above, about his planned covert operation to undermine UKIP. The idea is to launch what the report describes as “a “below-the-radar” operation to undermine UKIP politicians by catching them making embarrassing comments”….

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Populus online has CON closing the gap to just 5 pc – but are Tory members raising their expectation too high?

Populus online has CON closing the gap to just 5 pc – but are Tory members raising their expectation too high?

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Meanwhile nearly 2 in 3 CON members believe that Dave can hang on Remember that July 5 years ago when the betting was on a CON landslide At this precise point ahead of GE2015 in Jul 2008 William Hills made it a 40% chance that CON would win a 100+ majority The bet was a loser — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 29, 2013

Why do so many Tory MPs have second jobs?

Why do so many Tory MPs have second jobs?

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The Henry G Manson Friday column Ed Miliband’s decision to clamp down on the number of Labour MPs who have second jobs caused some surprise the other week. Following the 2015 general election no Labour MP will be able to work more than the value of 15% of their salary. Miliband called on other parties to follow suit. The way this story was reported suggested that if this policy was a stealth attack on the Conservative Party. But why? There…

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British politics is perhaps more nuanced than Lynton Crosby thinks

British politics is perhaps more nuanced than Lynton Crosby thinks

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Lynton Crosby – the Australian campaigning expert said to be behind the attacks on LAB over the NHS pic.twitter.com/SmOznwaHeP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 16, 2013 Is his Oz template right for Britain? Whatever you might think of him the great contribution Oz campaigning “guru” Lynton Crosby has made to the current political scene has been to give the Tory party and particularly its MPs their confidence back. That is no mean feat. In recent weeks he is said to…

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The real mug punters at the moment are those piling onto a CON majority at 3-1

The real mug punters at the moment are those piling onto a CON majority at 3-1

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Full Ladbrokes GE2015 betting LAB majority 5/4 (from 11/10) Hung parliament 13/8 CON maj 3/1 (from 7/2) UKIP maj 100/1 LD maj 200/1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 9, 2013 @richardmarcj Bookies are just responding to fact that there are more mug UKIP punters about than LD ones ready to bet on overall majorities — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 9, 2013 The mood of optimism that’s been coming out of the Tory camp in recent days about GE2015 has inevitably affected the betting markets. Ladbrokes…

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In praise of Lord Ashcroft – the UK’s leading commissioner of political polling

In praise of Lord Ashcroft – the UK’s leading commissioner of political polling

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A ludicrous attack on the UK’s leading funder of polling @lordashcroft by Peter Oborne goo.gl/BTbKw twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 13, 2013 To claim @lordashcroft has a “dangerous monopoly of political information” goes beyond hype telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/… its evidently nonsense — Sunder Katwala (@sundersays) June 12, 2013 Barmy slightly hysterical attack on @lordashcroft by Peter Oborne. Ashcroft a man who not only created wealth but kept Tory Party afloat — Stewart Jackson MP (@SJacksonMP) June 12, 2013 When it comes…

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