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ICM…..Opinium…..Survation….rolling blog on tonight’s final polls

ICM…..Opinium…..Survation….rolling blog on tonight’s final polls

This is what the ballot paper looks like (vis @faisalislam ) pic.twitter.com/D95tRyK1hE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 16, 2014 Big news is that all 3 polls have same figures YES 48 NO 52 Graphic showing full details of the Survation/Mail IndyRef poll pic.twitter.com/kdb4z3jlBD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 16, 2014 YES price moving out on the Betfair exchange. Two hours ago a £100 winning YES bet would have produced a £450 profit. Now that is £490 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 16,…

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Why Ipsos-MORI’s final #IndyRef poll could be the one to watch out for tomorrow night

Why Ipsos-MORI’s final #IndyRef poll could be the one to watch out for tomorrow night

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It was by far the top pollster at the 2011 Holyrood elections There are at least five final IndyRef polls due out tomorrow. The online firms that use polling panels – YouGov, Panelbase and Opinium, Survation which does online and phone, and an Ipsos-MORI phone poll. It is that last one I’m most looking forward to because of its record in Scotland last time out – the Holyrood elections of 2011. We haven’t seen anything from the firm on the…

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Marf on the IndyRef countdown and Canadians give their backing to the separatists

Marf on the IndyRef countdown and Canadians give their backing to the separatists

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A new poll of Canadians by Leger for the Association for Canadian Studies has just come out and finds Scottish IndyRef YES is supported by 32% to 29%. Interestingly amongst those sampled who are from Quebec the split was 44% YES to 24% NO. The independence referendum that took place in the Province in October 1995 is is the closest comparison to Thursday’s big election in Scotland. Back then YES went into polling day with a lead but voters in…

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Alex Salmond says there are no NO voters, just deferred YES ones

Alex Salmond says there are no NO voters, just deferred YES ones

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You’ve got to be careful making presumptions about voters Given the polls there are three things that YES/Salmond have to do: Ensure there’s a maximum turnout amongst those currently saying YES; try to win over some switchers, and endeavour to ensure lower turnout levels amongst those inclined to NO. It is that last category, I’d suggest, that are most important which is why YES/Salmond have to ensure that what they do doesn’t galvanise those who are against change. I’m far…

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The rolling IndyRef polling thread…LATEST Panelbase has NO margin down to 1.2%

The rolling IndyRef polling thread…LATEST Panelbase has NO margin down to 1.2%

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Tonight’s IndyRef polling running blog A total of four polls are expected tonight and this thread and chart will be updated as new information comes in. Opinium for the Observer has NO 6% ahead and Panelbase for the Sunday Times has a gap of just 1.2%. Earlier there was a ultra small sample online poll from ICM for the S Telegraph which had an 8% YES lead – in sharp contrast to firm’s phone poll for the Guardian. There was…

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Survation Indyref poll is out

Survation Indyref poll is out

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Survation #indyref poll is No 54 Yes 46 – Is reportedly a phone poll, so not good to compare to their last poll which was an online poll — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 13, 2014 On what appears to be first of a few indyref polls out today, the first one is survation, which should relax those at Better Together, as it gives them a larger lead than the ICM phone poll yesterday showed. As the tweet above notes,…

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If Scotland rejects independence next week it will be because of the failure to convince women

If Scotland rejects independence next week it will be because of the failure to convince women

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By more than two to one women don’t trust Salmond The big difference between the latest YouGov IndyRef poll and the one from last weekend showing a 2% YES lead has been a big switch amongst women voters. As the chart shows YES is almost maintaining a solid lead amongst men, It’s the big move amongst women voters in less than a week that have driven the big change. In the Sunday Times poll NO had just a 6% lead…

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The “Scare tactics” seem to be working: YouGov now have NO with 4% lead

The “Scare tactics” seem to be working: YouGov now have NO with 4% lead

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How the Sun is reporting its big news IndyRef poll pic.twitter.com/3PpCRoD7tf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2014 NO back in the led with YouGov YES: 48% (-3) NO: 52% (+3) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2014 YouGov #indyref "Yes" only ahead in one age group – 25 to 39 year olds. All others – inc 16 to 24 year olds – backing Scotland to remain — Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) September 11, 2014 …biggest fall with Scots women, who…

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