For Labour’s sake, Tony Blair must go now Regular readers of this site will know that I am not one of New Labour’s greatest fans. In fact, I would be happy to see the Labour Party go the same way as the Liberals in the 1920s. Nonetheless, I am not being cynical in offering my opinion that the sooner Tony Blair goes, the better for Labour. Tony Blair’s own opinion poll ratings are dreadful. YouGov’s BrandIndex and MORI are at…
Turnout recovers One feature of the first six years of this Government was declining turnout in local elections. Throughout the 1980’s, and the first half of the 1990’s turnout in local elections regularly exceeded 40%, historically, a high figure. After 1997, it declined steadily, reaching a low of 28% in 2000. In one by-election that year, in Liverpool, it even fell as low as 6%. This was mirrored in the General Election of 2001, when turnout reached 59%, the lowest…
Universities are still hostile to the Tories In the days of Sir Maurice Bowra, C.S. Lewis, and J.R.R. Tolkien, it would have been hard to imagine Oxford as being anything other than a Conservative stronghold. Academics, students, and college servants were all overwhelmingly Conservative in their sympathies, and Conservatives dominated the City Council. Sadly, that has all changed. Mark Senior’s description of the Conservatives as a “minor party†in the City is all too true. The Conservatives don’t have a…
Nobody can win in West Yorkshire West Yorkshire is unusual in having evolved a multi-party system in local elections. This is unusual under first past the post elections, as there is pressure on the voters to choose between two alternatives, in order to provide one party with an overall majority. Four out of five Metropolitan borough councils, Leeds, Bradford, Kirklees and Calderdale, are now under No Overall Control. What’s more, there is little prospect of that changing in future elections….
Press pundits précised The main British political stories today centre, as usual, on the election of the next Conservative leader. The Sunday Telegraph reports that its poll of constituency chairmen showed a 44% vote against the proposed change to the party’s constitution which would give MPs the final say on the leadership. With the proposal requiring a two-thirds majority at the National Convention on 27th September, this would be enough to block it. The Sunday Times speculates that the compromise…
New, moving and interesting markets this week The biggest story in British politics over the last few days has been the entry of Kenneth Clarke into the Conservative leadership election. Money in the betting markets has piled on the former Chancellor and pushed him into the second favourite position at 3.1/1, overtaking Shadow Education Secretary David Cameron (6.8/1) but continuing to trail the favourite, Shadow Home Secretary David Davis (0.92/1). All other contenders have slipped to 39/1 and longer. On…
Weekend words weighed The Conservative leadership election gets heavy coverage in today’s papers. The Sunday Times reminds readers that the left-leaning former minister Tim Yeo was still in the race, but has now dropped out to back Kenneth Clarke. Clarke is interviewed in the paper and, in a sentence that both his supporters and opponents are likely to enjoy, is quoted as saying: “I find it almost comic the number of people who tell me they would vote Tory if…
New, moving and interesting markets this week In last week’s markets update, we commented that the fixed odds betting on the German general election predicted that Angela Merkel was almost certain to become Chancellor after the 18th September election (which has now been formally authorised by the Constitutional Court). This is still the case, with Merkel 1/16 to become Chancellor, and the CDU–CSU 1/33 to be the largest party in the Bundestag. However, Cantor Spreadfair has added interest by creating…