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Category: Round-ups

Will Anthony’s thesis survive the January polls?

Will Anthony’s thesis survive the January polls?

UKPollingReport Does this point to a Labour standstill or small decline? In the week before Christmas Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report put forward the theory that Labour’s standing in the polls was closely linked with how optimistic the public were about the economy or the level of consumer confidence. He argued that Labour’s low point in the early summer coincided with the low points on the Ipsos-MORI Economic Optimism Index and the Nationwide Building Society Consumer Confidence Index. Thus…

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So how should Cameron respond?

So how should Cameron respond?

This is an original cartoon by Marf for LondonSketchBook.com Is a Shadow Cabinet re-shuffle the best way to manage a lull? The dramatic return to our shores of Peter Mandelson belies bespeaks a steely pragmatism – that an historic personal conflict has been tossed aside for either the national interest or the benefit of electoral mastery is no meagre move for a man derided as an egotist by his critics. To welcome back ‘the Prince of Darkness’ to the Cabinet,…

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Can we have confidence in the Sunday Telegraph’s new pollster?

Can we have confidence in the Sunday Telegraph’s new pollster?

Sunday Telegraph Has ICM been been dumped for an unregistered firm? There’s a lot going on at the moment and the apparent decision of a major Sunday newspaper to switch pollsters might not seem that important – but today’s BPIX poll in the Sunday Telegraph raises serious issues for all who care about polling transparency. For after using the respected ICM firm for years the Sunday Telegraph’s poll this morning is from a firm that is not part of the…

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Continuation thread…

Continuation thread…

And still we wait… In spite of hints and rumours, there is still no confirmation of Barack Obama’s running mate as he speaks to a small crowd in Richmond, Virginia with Governor Tim Kaine. He is attacking McCain for having seven houses worth $13m – the Republican was unable to say how many properties he owned when asked earlier this week. A small package of white powder has been sent to a McCain campaign office in Denver, according to breaking…

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Overview of the Sunday Papers

Overview of the Sunday Papers

The conflict in Georgia dominates the front pages The Sunday Newspapers are focussing heavily on the conflict that has erupted between Russia and Georgia over South Ossetia. The US and UK are affirming Georgia’s territorial rights and calling for a cessation of hostilities. Around 1,000 Georgian troops have been withdrawn from Iraq, as Russia demands that Georgia withdraws to its undisputed territory. The region of Abkhazia has now joined the conflict, according to the Observer. In other news, the Sunday…

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On the 12th of July news from Northern Ireland

On the 12th of July news from Northern Ireland

What’s happening across the Irish sea? After the passage of ’42 days’ through the Commons, and the deal-that-never-was between Brown and the DUP, it struck me that how rarely Northern Ireland makes the news nowadays. Most of us in the UK grew up with nightly stories of the IRA, Bloody Sunday inquiries, Gerry Adams being voiced by actors, UVF revenge attacks, the Peace Process, Good Friday Agreements, and eventually power-sharing at Stormont. It occurred to me that Northern Ireland was…

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Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Sean Fear’s Friday slot

Do UKIP and the BNP Really Damage the Conservatives? One problem that David Cameron has to contend with, in contrast to Tony Blair in the 1990s, is that disgruntled Conservatives have somewhere to go. Neither UKIP, nor the BNP could be regarded as a serious challenger for political power, yet each party has shown that it can obtain significant votes, in individual constituencies. In 2005, UKIP won 620,000 votes, and saved 35 deposits, and the BNP won 191,000, and saved…

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Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Sean Fear’s Friday Slot

Are Labour Past the Worst ? Prior to May’s local elections, I had anticipated that Labour’s projected share of the national vote would fall below 25%, and that they would clearly finish behind the Liberal Democrats. I had thought that the Liberal Democrats (and some minor parties) would make considerable gains at Labour’s expense. These were reasonable assumptions, given that Labour’s local by-election record in the months leading up to the local elections had been dreadful, the Party’s poll ratings…

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