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Category: Referendum

ICM finds the biggest backing yet for a referendum on the final deal

ICM finds the biggest backing yet for a referendum on the final deal

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Brexit: Britons favour second referendum by 16-point margin – new ICM poll https://t.co/Kvw8o8zI29 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2018 ICM finds 47% saying they'd be in favour of new referendum once terms known – 34% against. Excluding don't knows that's a split of 58% to 42% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2018 New ICM poll finds that 9% of LAB leave voters no say they'd vote remain in a 2nd referendum — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2018…

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Farage’s surprise backing could put a second Brexit referendum on the agenda

Farage’s surprise backing could put a second Brexit referendum on the agenda

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EXCLUSIVE – Nigel Farage says "just maybe I’m reaching the point of thinking that we should have a second referendum on EU membership".@Nigel_Farage | @Matthew_Wright | #wrightstuff pic.twitter.com/T0fROToskr — The Wright Stuff (@5WrightStuff) January 11, 2018 Probably the biggest development this morning has been the comments by the former UKIP leader, Nigel Farage, in a tv interview about a second referendum on Brexit. Generally up until now the only people advocating a second vote at those who are very strongly…

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Support growing for another EURef in an unlikely publication – the Brexit backing Spectator

Support growing for another EURef in an unlikely publication – the Brexit backing Spectator

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A Speccie headline I'd though we would never see. "Nick Clegg is right: we need a second Brexit referendum" https://t.co/QzNDjycoeN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 7, 2017 Ladbrokes 5/1 on EURef3 might be value The Survation MoS poll on Sunday had what was a surprise result the should there be another Brexit referendum question was put. By a margin of 16% those sampled said they wanted one. This has long been been a call from the former LD leader and…

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Leading constitutional expert and Cameron’s former tutor thinks a second referendum now likely

Leading constitutional expert and Cameron’s former tutor thinks a second referendum now likely

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Four reasons from Vernon Bogdanor for why a second EU referendum is now likely. Hard to disagree. pic.twitter.com/LQqNKfharq — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) August 3, 2017 Remember Farage called for a 2nd referendum when he thought Remain was winning. https://t.co/qwvpZp6xkG — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 3, 2017

ICM referendum findings suggest that turnout won’t be at general election levels

ICM referendum findings suggest that turnout won’t be at general election levels

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This could be good news for LEAVE The latest ICM poll includes for the first time turnout weighting and points to two broad conclusions: that outers are more determined to vote than inners and that the overall participation level will be lower than the 66.1% that we saw at the general election in May 2015. Before applying the turnout filter but after excluding the “certain not to vote” the latest survey, carried out after the Brussels attacks, had 43% REMAIN,…

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The New Zealand flag referendum goes strongly for the status quo: A pointer for EURef

The New Zealand flag referendum goes strongly for the status quo: A pointer for EURef

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Another referendum where the status quo wins. New Zealand votes to keep current flag. Implications for BREXIT? https://t.co/1nrhu8EwYp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 24, 2016 One of the massive challenges for LEAVE is that there’s a strong history in elections from many countries of the status quo prevailing. We saw that in Scotland in September 2014 as well as in the UK EC referendum of 1975. We have also seen it to a very striking degree when voters in English…

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There was a similar phone/online polling divide at the last national UK referendum

There was a similar phone/online polling divide at the last national UK referendum

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Phone polls trounced online ones in the 2011 AV vote I get asked several a week at the moment for a view on online phone divide that we’ve seen over the EURef. Which is better I’m asked and I’m reluctant to come down on one side or the other. At the general election the final polls from both modes were in the same ball park although during the official campaign period the phone firms were much more like to report…

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ICM test finds that stay has an 18% lead when the proposed EU referendum question is asked

ICM test finds that stay has an 18% lead when the proposed EU referendum question is asked

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ICM test on different formats for referendum question. 1st option is the one in the bill. pic.twitter.com/z4Wady42oq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 2, 2015 But other formats less good for YES ICM used a split sample in its online test and put three different options the first one being that inlcuded in the referendum bill. Split sample Q1: Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union? 1. Yes 2. No 3. DK Split sample Q2: Should the…

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