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Category: Referendum

AV referendum will fail, say the “PB 104”

AV referendum will fail, say the “PB 104”

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PB 2011 predictions now out The AV referendum is predicted to result in a “No” vote – that’s the main finding from the 2011 Politicalbetting Prediction Competition. 104 of the site’s sharpest pundits took part in PB’s annual crystal ball-gazing exercise, looking at everything from the state of the party leaders at Christmas and the opinion polls, to UK interest rates, the GOP race and the Irish election. Full details of the player-by-player predictions are

Will a referendum delay help YES or NO?

Will a referendum delay help YES or NO?

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What’s the consequence of not holding it on May 5th? In the next few days big decisions will have to be taken on the voting and constituencies bill which has been held up by the massive Labour filibuster in the Lords. Ministers have three choices: To try to force a guillotine on their lordships – an unprecedented step which might fail because cross-benchers are none too keen on the idea To accede to the Labour demand to de-couple the AV…

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David Herdson asks: “How many Tories will vote Yes?”

David Herdson asks: “How many Tories will vote Yes?”

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Might AV work to their advantage? Politics often boils down to a mixture of high principle and low expediency or interest. The debate on voting reform has long been a classic example of the sort. It is hardly coincidental that all three main parties have produced principled arguments that just happen to support a voting system that is particularly favourable to them. One 1997 election promise that Labour were open about not keeping was their proposed referendum on voting reform….

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YES still ahead in AV polls that ask the actual question

YES still ahead in AV polls that ask the actual question

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Latest AV referendum polls Date YES % NO % Question wording Angus Reid 25/01/11 35 (-2) 21 (+1) Actual wording on the ballot YouGov/Sun 25/01/11 32 (nc) 41 (nc) Bespoke wording – referring to the fact that this is a proposal from the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition ComRes/Indy on Sunday 14/01/11 36 30 Actual wording on the ballot ICM/Guardian 19/12/10 44 38 Actual wording on the ballot How close a battle is it going to be? With YouGov’s latest daily poll…

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Does Scotland hold the key to the referendum outcome?

Does Scotland hold the key to the referendum outcome?

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AV referendum question – actual wording on the ballot (ICM 10,011 sample poll) YES % NO % All 59 41 Scotland 65 35 North 62 38 North West 57 43 Yorks 57 43 East Midlands 56 44 West Midlands 57 43 Wales 59 41 Eastern 59 41 Greater London 60 40 South East 61 39 South West 61 39 Would a delay in the timing favour the NOES One of the consequences of the big Labour filibuster in the House…

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Does the AV referendum question wording favour YES?

Does the AV referendum question wording favour YES?

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Latest AV referendum polls Date YES % NO % Question wording YouGov 10/01/11 32 41 See wording below Angus Reid 07/01/11 37 20 Actual phrasing that’s on the ballot paper ICM 19/12/10 44 38 Actual phrasing that’s on the ballot paper Why’s YouGov the pollster that’s out of line again? There’s a new Angus Reid poll out on the AV referendum and its findings are in sharp contrast to YouGov. The Canadian pollster has, like ICM, used the precise wording…

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Could FPTP be too ingrained within our culture?

Could FPTP be too ingrained within our culture?

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Spetember 25 2010 – the moment EdM wins the Labour leadership Is this why AV winners are not seen as being legitimate? Aside from the build-up to next Thursday’s OES by-election two things have struck me most during the first week back after the holidays – the kicking that Ed Miliband seems to be getting in the media and the reactions here on PB to the elections for our poster of the year. The common element to both is the…

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How many 2011 predictions will John Rentoul get right?

How many 2011 predictions will John Rentoul get right?

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Event Rentoul’s Predictions for 2011 Date Oldham E & Saddleworth “Labour gain” 13/01/11 Welsh referendum “Labour-Plaid Cymru gain” 03/03/11 AV referendum “Lib Dem loss” 05/05/11 The economy “Conservative gain” 31/12/11 What do we think of the Blair biographer’s predictions? The Indy on Sunday’s political editor and Blair biographer, John Rentoul, has published a list of his main predictions for 2011 and they are set out in the table above. While I do think that Labour’s got a good chance in…

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