Opinium finds a net 13% drop in two weeks in government’s “Coronavirus Handling” approval rating
And more than half think the government is coming out of lockdown too fast
Starmer’s getting his lowest approval ratings in the CON seats that should be LAB’s main targets
This chart is a follow up to the one on the previous header which looked at the PM’s approval ratings by what happened at GE2019 in groups of constituencies. As can be seen the Starmer approval ratings follow the same pattern with Corbyn’s successor getting positive numbers across the board but doing least well in those seats which were gained by the Tories at GE2019. Note that this isn’t just from one poll but the average for each group from…
Polling Analysis: Johnson’s approval ratings are markedly better in seats gained by the Tories at GE2019
The one poll we get every week is by Opinium for the Observer – a pollster that provide some of the best cross tabs for analysis. Because there can be such a high margin of error in taking the splits from one poll I have gone through all four polls that were published by Populus during this month and the figures shown are the average. The part of the surveys I have focussed on are the net approval ratings for…
Your regular reminder that you should always look at the full tables rather than just the tweets that go viral
TSE
Trump voters maybe far more enthusiastic about their man than Biden ones but that is only part of the story
The above chart is from an interesting analysis from Nate Silver’s 538 site on the so-called enthusiasm gap between supporters for the President and his Democratic opponent. This is based on polling that those planning to vote for Trump on November 2nd are twice as likely to say they are enthusiastic about their choice than Biden backers. Inevitably with Trump polling an average nine points behind Biden the President himself and his campaign are looking at plus points from the…
New YouGov poll has the Tories back with a double digit lead
The biggest lead in any poll since May The changes of course are within the margin of error and YouGov has been tending to show the Tories doing better than some other pollsters. Last weekend Opinium, the pollster which got the last general election most right, had the gap at just 4%. This may be just a positive effect of the pandemic apparently getting slightly better in the UK and of course the easing in the lockdown rules. Things start…
Across all pollsters the Tories are retaining a clear lead
One of the oddest features of current next general election polling is how little there is of it at the moment. The main pollsters of yesteryear, ICM and Populus are not heard of much in this context and even YouGov has only been issuing new polls every few weeks. The last published survey from them finalised its fieldwork on June 12th – which is getting on for a month ago. Survation, top pollster at GE2017, is producing a survey about…