One of the oddest features of current next general election polling is how little there is of it at the moment. The main pollsters of yesteryear, ICM and Populus are not heard of much in this context and even YouGov has only been issuing new polls every few weeks. The last published survey from them finalised its fieldwork on June 12th – which is getting on for a month ago.
Survation, top pollster at GE2017, is producing a survey about once a month while we also have the newcomer, Redfield & Wilton Strategies which so far has not been tested at a general election.
The one that we see the most of is the top pollster from GE2019, Opinium, with its weekly surveys for the Observer and is showing a 4% CON lead. The tightest since the start of June has been the 3% CON lead with Deltapoll.
Although Starmer has been doing very well in comparison with Johnson in the leader ratings he must surely be hoping for a LAB lead soon. I find it odd that the latest Opinium approval ratings had Johnson a net 27% behind Starmer while the voting numbers still had CON 4% ahead. I cannot recall a similar divergence in the past.