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Some of tomorrow’s front pages and tonight’s yougov.

Some of tomorrow’s front pages and tonight’s yougov.

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GUARDIAN: Miliband's 2.5bn pledge puts NHS at heart of election battle #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/ODupyBb7dQ — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) September 23, 2014 INDEPENDENT: Obama's Damascene conversion #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/i3JnDAhrmH — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) September 23, 2014 Tonight’s YouGov makes for pleasant reading for Labour and Ed. YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead up five to seven points: CON 31%, LAB 38%, LD 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5% — Sun Politics (@Sun_Politics) September 23, 2014 I’d remember the two usual caveats, polling…

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The polling says UKIP are the most extreme and the least fit to govern party

The polling says UKIP are the most extreme and the least fit to govern party

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From the Ipsos-Mori that featured this morning, Ipsos-Mori asked the following “I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…” The two findings that stood out were UKIP were comfortably viewed as the most extreme, and the least fit to govern in answer to that question.   My own thinking is these are the kind of findings that will…

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The IndyRef maybe over but a fierce flare-up is going on over the polling

The IndyRef maybe over but a fierce flare-up is going on over the polling

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The Mail on Sunday this morning Mail on Sunday asks if the YouGov 2% YES poll was a rogue & cost UK £45bn http://t.co/CQ393tPpzF pic.twitter.com/sYWq9Yqhk2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 21, 2014 YouGov’s Kellner responds War of words between developing Mail/S & YouGov's Kellner http://t.co/La4AQIJlkv over that YES 2% poll 2 wks ago pic.twitter.com/EVGeHaFsBq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 21, 2014 Some polling lessons for an EU referendum? Two things gave that 2% YES lead its greater potency: the advance hyping…

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Good morning Scotland! Will it be different from the polls in the privacy of the polling booth?

Good morning Scotland! Will it be different from the polls in the privacy of the polling booth?

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How millions of Scottish voters fill in this form today will determine the future of the UK. pic.twitter.com/ascFqVwoDW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 18, 2014 It was in Quebec in Oct 1995 when the separatists lost The final polls from the 1995 Quebec referendum when NO won by a fraction of 1% pic.twitter.com/Kx62Ck5uls — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 18, 2014 Two hours before the polling stations open the Betfair exchange makes NO an 82% chance. Could punters be wrong? — Mike…

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YouGov and Survation phone polls are out – It is still too close to call.

YouGov and Survation phone polls are out – It is still too close to call.

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YouGov sees no change whilst Survation’s phone poll sees No’s lead cut by 2%, all the final polls have No ahead.If no wins, it’ll be the oldies and women that wins it for them Final YouGov #indyref poll has no ahead No 52 (nc) Yes 48 (nc) — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 17, 2014 New @Survation #indyref phone poll sees No 53 (-1) Yes 47 (+1) http://t.co/QYlhTN4gx6 — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 17, 2014 YouGov/Times: The 25 to 29 age…

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Corporeal suggests that political punters should be rooting against the Pollsters

Corporeal suggests that political punters should be rooting against the Pollsters

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Confusion might be best for those wanting a bet Here at PB we generally like pollsters (especially if they drop by to read and boost traffic numbers). I’m sure many of them are lovely people (a couple have even retweeted me occasionally) but it’s mostly the polls they produce that we like (sometimes with the slight undercurrent of getting a fix supplied). As a site where we mix polling and betting good data on likely outcomes is valuable as well…

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ICM…..Opinium…..Survation….rolling blog on tonight’s final polls

ICM…..Opinium…..Survation….rolling blog on tonight’s final polls

This is what the ballot paper looks like (vis @faisalislam ) pic.twitter.com/D95tRyK1hE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 16, 2014 Big news is that all 3 polls have same figures YES 48 NO 52 Graphic showing full details of the Survation/Mail IndyRef poll pic.twitter.com/kdb4z3jlBD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 16, 2014 YES price moving out on the Betfair exchange. Two hours ago a £100 winning YES bet would have produced a £450 profit. Now that is £490 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 16,…

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Why Ipsos-MORI’s final #IndyRef poll could be the one to watch out for tomorrow night

Why Ipsos-MORI’s final #IndyRef poll could be the one to watch out for tomorrow night

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It was by far the top pollster at the 2011 Holyrood elections There are at least five final IndyRef polls due out tomorrow. The online firms that use polling panels – YouGov, Panelbase and Opinium, Survation which does online and phone, and an Ipsos-MORI phone poll. It is that last one I’m most looking forward to because of its record in Scotland last time out – the Holyrood elections of 2011. We haven’t seen anything from the firm on the…

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