Browsed by
Category: Polls

New marginals polling from ComRes find 5.5% CON to LAB swing

New marginals polling from ComRes find 5.5% CON to LAB swing

Comments 0 Comment

There’s been a sharp move to LAB since last poll in June A new ComRes / ITV News poll of the 40 most marginal Labour-Conservative constituencies, shows Labour holding an 11 point lead over the Conservatives. At the 2010 General Election the two parties were tied on 37% across these 40 seats so the swing is 5.5% The latest figures together with comparisons on GE2010 and the last such poll by ComRes in June are shown in the chart above….

Read More Read More

Lord Ashcroft poll is out – Labour is on course for a majority

Lord Ashcroft poll is out – Labour is on course for a majority

Comments 0 Comment

There’s a 6 point swing from Con to Lab in this polling – This would put Ed Miliband into Downing Street with a majority of 62, assuming UNS.   The @LordAshcroft polling pic.twitter.com/KcMyqbTeEO — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 28, 2014 It also makes for unpleasant reading for the Lib Dems, as Lord Ashcroft notes, A lesson from the blue-yellow marginals. Incumbency is not enough, it appears that the Yellows are on course to lose seats to both the Tories and…

Read More Read More

As we await the Lord Ashcroft polling this afternoon

As we await the Lord Ashcroft polling this afternoon

Comments 0 Comment

Here’s a preview of what to expect (Note these are my selected highlights) Just over a quarter of those who voted Conservative in 2010 said they would vote for a different party in an election tomorrow. Nearly three-quarters of these now support Ukip, with most of the remainder going to Labour. Most of those who have switched from the Tories say they will still consider voting for the party next May. About 1 in 8 of those who did not…

Read More Read More

It’s like back to the 90s for the Tories on what is turning out to be Cameron’s Black Saturday

It’s like back to the 90s for the Tories on what is turning out to be Cameron’s Black Saturday

Comments 0 Comment

Today reminds me of the 1990s and the end of John Major’s administration. First up was Mark Reckless’ defection to UKIP and in the last hour or so, Brooks Newmark, the Conservative minister for civil society, resigns after being caught sending explicit photographs of himself to women over the internet.  For those who were optimistic that the Tories would remain in power post May 2015, today probably extinguished those hopes. I still think there’s one defection to come, timed for maximum…

Read More Read More

Tory MP Mark Reckless defects to UKIP

Tory MP Mark Reckless defects to UKIP

Comments 0 Comment

Not the start Cameron wanted before the Tory conference Mark Reckless Tory MP defects to UKIP — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 27, 2014 UPDATE Mark Reckless follows the Carswell principle and forces a by-election in his seat. — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 27, 2014 UPDATE II – VIDEO OF RECKLESS ANNOUNCING HIS DEFECTION UPDATE III – constituency phone polling by Survation in Rotherham, Boston & Skegness and North Thanet New constituency phone polling by @Survation in Rotherham, Boston…

Read More Read More

Ipsos Mori issues index for September is out

Ipsos Mori issues index for September is out

Comments 0 Comment

The two topics Ed forgot in his speech, remain the public’s top two issues, unsurprisingly, Defence/Foreign Affairs/Terrorism is the biggest riser. The @IpsosMORI issues index for September. The 2 issues Ed forgot in his speech, remain the public's top 2 issues pic.twitter.com/oE54vkmHTx — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 26, 2014 The first Ipsos-Mori issues index was published forty years ago, here’s what the issues were back in September 1974 The first @IpsosMORI issues index was published forty years ago, here's…

Read More Read More

The limits of private polling

The limits of private polling

Comments 0 Comment

What do Alex Salmond & Mitt Romney have in common? http://t.co/V9a2WYSixk pic.twitter.com/rxTLcE8rb4 — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 24, 2014 Both had private polling showing they were going to win. For we followers and obsessives of opinion polls, there are two words that grab our attention like no others, those two words are “private polling”, there’s some belief that “private polling” is much more sophisticated and accurate, than the normal public polling, but is it? Mitt Romney’s internal polling in…

Read More Read More

First polling on EdM’s policy plans get quite good public support

First polling on EdM’s policy plans get quite good public support

Comments 0 Comment

Survation have conducted an instant reaction poll on Ed Miliband’s speech. Note, on the tabs, I’ve condensed the questions asked down to a brief outline of the policy for formatting reasons, the actual questions asked by survation are more comprehensive. As we can see, all of the major policy announcements enjoy either majority or plurality support, so Ed will be delighted, especially if it leads to an increase in Labour’s share of the vote in the voting intention polls. However,…

Read More Read More