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Lord Ashcroft’s national poll joins YouGov in having the Tories ahead after their conference

Lord Ashcroft’s national poll joins YouGov in having the Tories ahead after their conference

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As ever, I’d caution about reading too much into polling conducted during and in the immediate aftermath of conferences, particularly with the Lord Ashcroft national poll, which has shown more volatility than most other pollsters. However the Blues will be delighted to have another pollster showing them ahead following their conference. Lord Ashcroft poll has 19% of 2010 LDs now saying LAB with 15% saying CON. That is seriously worrying for LAB. The gap has been much wider — Mike…

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As long as we see polling like this it increases the chances of tactical voting against UKIP

As long as we see polling like this it increases the chances of tactical voting against UKIP

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Whilst the polling on this question has improved slightly for UKIP since May, it still represents a problem for the party. I’ve noted in the past that in politics, sometimes perceptions matter more than the facts, and unfortunately they are perceived as the party of fruit cakes and loonies and closet racists mostly. Given the large number of Labour voters in Rochester & Strood, it will be interesting if the Tories try and push the meme with Labour supporters, as I…

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What the Rochester poll would look like without the 2010 non voters

What the Rochester poll would look like without the 2010 non voters

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The race becomes a tie – but Labour could snatch it Thanks to Mike for alerting me to the fact that 23.4% of the UKIP support in the survation poll were people who did not vote in the 2010 General Election. History has shown voters who did not vote in the last general election are the less likely to turnout in the next general election. One of the reasons ICM has been consistently the most accurate pollster is one of their…

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Is this is what is driving the Tory lead?

Is this is what is driving the Tory lead?

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Dave’s policies on the Human Rights Act and the 40p tax rate enjoy plurality/net support. I’ve said before, polling on conference policies can be a lot like budget polling. Policies can get a lot of support in the immediate aftermath, but sometimes the boost in the VI fades, but the Tories will be delighted to enjoy plurality support for their two major conference policies. We need more polling from other pollsters to see if this Tory lead is being replicated….

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Survation Rochester Poll has UKIP 9% ahead

Survation Rochester Poll has UKIP 9% ahead

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Whilst UKIP will be delighted by this, there’s a few things to note Mark Reckless’ share of the vote is down nearly 10% from the general election A lead of 9% compares poorly to the 44% lead UKIP/Douglas Carswell had in the Clacton Survation poll This leads me to conclude that my assumption that Mark Reckless is no Douglas Carswell in terms of popularity in his seat the way Douglas Carswell is regarded in Clacton. I expect the Labour supporters…

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CON hopes are based on the LDs flourishing in LAB-CON marginals but not in CON-LD ones. The opposite is the case.

CON hopes are based on the LDs flourishing in LAB-CON marginals but not in CON-LD ones. The opposite is the case.

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GE2015 will see the return of big time tactical voting Because so much has been going on politically in the past few days very little attention has been paid to the latest round of marginals polling that was published by Lord Ashcroft last Sunday afternoon. The focus was on Lib Dem seats and the chart above is based on Lord A”s aggregate data from 17 separate polls. We’ve talked so often before about the collapse of the Lib Dem vote…

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Survation poll on Heywood and Middleton has a comfortable Labour hold

Survation poll on Heywood and Middleton has a comfortable Labour hold

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The changes are from the 2010 General Election I think Labour will be relieved and delighted with this comfortable hold and increase on their 2010 share of the vote, UKIP will be delighted with the increase, that they can do well in traditional Labour heartlands and that they aren’t just disgruntled Tories. All the odds on Heywood and Middleton are available here. But the major polling news this evening is this Tonight's Sun/YouGov has the Tories ahead for the first…

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UKIP down 2 in this month’s ComRes phone poll for the Independent

UKIP down 2 in this month’s ComRes phone poll for the Independent

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The fieldwork was Friday to Sunday inclusive, so some of it was conducted during Mark Reckless’ defection and Brooks Newmark’s resignation. There’ll probably be relief at Tory HQ, given that and the the polling was conducted in the aftermath of the Labour conference that they are up 1% and not down a significant amount. As with most other pollsters, there’s been no bounce for Labour post their conference. As ever, conference polling can be erratic, and we should wait until…

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