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It’s all very tight but the Tories seem to be doing better with the phone pollsters LAB with the online ones

It’s all very tight but the Tories seem to be doing better with the phone pollsters LAB with the online ones

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Or do the Tories do best when the fieldwork is mostly at the weekend? At the moment this close to an election with the numbers so tight it’s interesting to divide the pollsters by methodology to see if there’s a pattern In the chart above showing the Tory lead over LAB there is a clear division between the phone pollsters and the online ones. The former are giving the edge every do slightly to the blues while the latter it…

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The Monday afternoon rolling polls thread

The Monday afternoon rolling polls thread

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CON lead down from 4 to 2 with latest Ashcroft phone poll See details & trends from today's Ashcroft national poll pic.twitter.com/nTp4tRYByg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 16, 2015 CON lead down from 4 to 1 in the March ICM Guardian poll CON lead moves from 4 to 1 in latest ICM Guardian poll pic.twitter.com/BtRz62KD9e — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 16, 2015 So both the pollsters that had the biggest CON leads – ICM & Ashcroft with 4% – now…

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Fewer voters have made up their mind on how to vote than in the past

Fewer voters have made up their mind on how to vote than in the past

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Whilst most voters think the debates will influence the way the vote Ipsos Mori have done some polling which asks how many voters have made up their mind on how to vote, and what will influence the way they will vote. The fieldwork for the polling was early to mid February, so well before the recent contretemps over the debates. So David Cameron’s non appearance in the debates could fundamentally damage the Tories as we can see from the above…

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Opinium and ComRes have LAB with 2% leads and both have Ed closing the gap on Dave in their leader ratings

Opinium and ComRes have LAB with 2% leads and both have Ed closing the gap on Dave in their leader ratings

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YouGov Sunday Times poll has CON & LAB level pegging CON loses its YouGov lead. Now level pegging CON 34% LAB 34% LD 7% UKIP 14% GRN 5%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2015 LAB retains 2pt lead with ComRes online for Indy on Sunday/S Mirror Con 33% (+1) Lab 35% (+1) LD 7% (NC) UKIP 16% (NC) Greens4% (NC) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 14, 2015 Today's changes in latest Opinium Observer poll CON 33-1 LAB 35 +1 LIB 7 -1 UKIP 14= GRN 7= Changes within margin of error — Mike…

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UKIP moves to its highest ever level with Populus

UKIP moves to its highest ever level with Populus

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The Tories slip back into the 20s with Populus. UKIP up 3 Con 29 (-3) Lab 32 (-1) LD 8 (-1) UKIP 18 (+3) Gn 6 (nc) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 13, 2015 Are we seeing a UKIP revival? Populus today UKIP up 3 Ipsos yesterday up 4 YouGov yesterday up 2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 13, 2015 The move follows yesterday’s 4 point jump with Ipsos It is always said that one of the best signs of a polling trend is…

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YouGov Scotland poll see Labour fail to improve

YouGov Scotland poll see Labour fail to improve

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Labour are still on course for a shellacking in Scotland come May. Jim Murphy isn’t turning to be the great hope that Labour were hoping he would be. YouGov Times in Scoltand: Drop in Jim Murphy's approval. % thinking he's doing well as Labour leader 26%, down from 33% on Feb 1 — Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) March 12, 2015 Turning this poll into a seat projection the Times says YouGov / Scotland – if uniform swing, SNP would win 48…

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UKIP the big gainer with Ipsos-MORI while LAB retains a lead

UKIP the big gainer with Ipsos-MORI while LAB retains a lead

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53% told Ipsos Standard poll they thought it's “time for a change” & just 32% said Tories deserved to win election. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 12, 2015 Ipsos-Standard poll Who would be the most capable chancellor, 41% Osborne 30% Balls — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 12, 2015

Lord Ashcroft to return to the CON held marginals with the smallest majorities

Lord Ashcroft to return to the CON held marginals with the smallest majorities

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Will the Tory recovery have changed the picture? The big polling news in the past hour has been a Tweet from Lord Ashcroft saying that next week he’s publishing a new round of marginals poll of the seats he polled first nearly a year ago. These are the ones with the tightest majorities and the most vulnerable. I’ve shown a group in the chart above which I think might be included. If CON is on the up and LAB down…

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