What will tomorrow’s polls show – UP or DOWN? The first number I hunt out when Lord Ashcroft publishes a new set of marginals’ polling is the average CON to LAB swing in the seats being surveyed. This gives a good pointer to the way things are going. Tomorrow the good Lord is providing us with eight more separate constituency polls with the usual 1,000 sample in each. The chart shows the movement in the swing in each wave of…
Details from @LordAshcroft poll pic.twitter.com/XJsmUnMxwB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 30, 2015 There’ve been three published polls since the Sunday Times YouGov LAB 4% lead poll. ComRes had 4% CON lead last night, Populus had the parties level pegging this morning and now Lord Ashcroft has a 2% CON lead. So it is starting to look as though YouGov might have been an outlier. We’ll see what the firm’s latest poll has tonight. It is starting to look as though…
At almost exactly this point before GE2010 YouGov had CON ahead with teachers In December 2013 that had become a 41% LAB lead It was said in July that this was why Lynton was behind the Gove sacking During one of the breaks at the big LSE GE forecasting conference on Friday I was asked for suggestions of ideas for interesting polling that could tell us more than what we see in standard surveys or constituency polling. After pondering this…
Lab has 19% lead with who watched on Thurs. 12% Lab lead with who watched some/clips. Con 6% ahead with non viewers pic.twitter.com/cVUJjdXYp3 — TSE (@TSEofPB) March 29, 2015 Nearly 20% of the YouGov respondents watched Thursday’s programme, whereas around only 5% of the public actually watched the programme so this might be what may be somewhat over amplifying Ed’s performance and the Labour lead. What does indicate that is a good poll for Labour and Ed is the relative improvement…
The trend in Survation's GE15 polling pic.twitter.com/BkpyCWmSgD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 25, 2015 New Survation poll for Daily Mirror has LAB 1 ahead LAB 33% -1 CON 32% +3 UKIP 18% -1 LD 8% -1 GRN 4% nc SNP 4% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 25, 2015 All polls, it seems, moving to level-pegging or thereabouts Two things stand out with the Survation-Mirror poll that’s just been released. Firstly the Tories have almost closed the gap although, it should be noted, the…
The 2nd & 3rrd favourites for the CON leadership sitting either side of Cameron at PMQs pic.twitter.com/e8LuRnRgXm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 25, 2015 A new Guardian/ICM poll, just issued, of those planning to watch tomorrow’s C4 leaders’programme finds voters split 38-38 on Cameron’s 3rd term announcement As you’d expect Tom Clarke in the Guardian reports a partisan split in the responses. His report notes that with CON supporters, 56% to 27% believe his move was right. Among LAB supporters,…
In vote terms this couldn’t be tighter This is extraordinary. In all the time I’ve been covering polling I cannot recall a sequence like the one we are seeing this week. Four polls on the trot all reporting LAB and CON with the same vote shares. In terms of seats level-pegging suits Ed Miliband much more than it does David Cameron. The latter needs to see his party at least three up across a range of firms to be confident…
Another poll without a budget boost for the Tories As we’ve seen with some other pollsters, the big two are increasing their share of the vote, and UKIP falling back, as ComRes notes This represents the highest combined two-party vote share since September 2013. Individually, it is Labour’s highest share for six months and the Conservatives’ highest since November 2012. UKIP sees its vote share fall three points to 10%, the lowest in a ComRes phone poll in more than…