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Category: Polls

Why this could be like 1992 when the polls were simply wrong

Why this could be like 1992 when the polls were simply wrong

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Elections & polling expert Keiran Pedley examines whether the UK polling industry could be about to experience a crisis not seen since the polls got it so wrong in 1992.  Those that follow polling closely will recall the famous situation in 1992 where the polls appeared to point to a Labour victory (of sorts) only for the Conservatives to prevail. Since that time, much work has gone into correcting those mistakes and subsequent election results have shown that the polling…

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The polls have the battle broadly tied – the spread betting markets have a CON 19 seat lead

The polls have the battle broadly tied – the spread betting markets have a CON 19 seat lead

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The week's national polling in fieldwork date order from http://t.co/zulWdj61nG pic.twitter.com/uL8ERlMPKn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 19, 2015 CON move to 19 seat lead on @SportingIndex http://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 commons spread betting market. pic.twitter.com/UxXwAbcV5z — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 19, 2015 Confusing picture remains after contrasting weekend polls – my weekly column for @BetfairPredicts http://t.co/0XONqz8JmO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 19, 2015 Can we expect a proper cross-over in the final 17 days?

Tories double their lead with Opinium to 4% – Update but YouGov has Lab 3% ahead

Tories double their lead with Opinium to 4% – Update but YouGov has Lab 3% ahead

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Opinium/Observer fieldwork began just before the debate with “most” responses after it. So the move might reflect it, but all usual caveats — Matt Singh NCP (@MattSingh_) April 18, 2015 The fieldwork started just before Thursday’s debate with most responses after it, tonight’s YouGov which should be out later, was entirely after the debate. This is essentially margin of error changes, but like yesterday’s Survation, it should be heartening for the Tories, especially with the England only polling, it might…

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For only the second time ever Survation has CON ahead

For only the second time ever Survation has CON ahead

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The turning of the tide or just sample variation? Survation trend chart including their latest with CON lead pic.twitter.com/CtBrHBYt9Y — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 17, 2015 CON take the lead in D Mirror Survation pollCON 34% (+4); LAB 33% (-2); UKIP 17% (+1); LD 7% (-1); SNP 4% (NC); GRE 3% (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 17, 2015 This is only the second time Survation has ever shown the Tories in the lead, since they started in 2011… —…

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The marginals down for CON hold are where there’s the least amount of 2010 LD to LAB switching

The marginals down for CON hold are where there’s the least amount of 2010 LD to LAB switching

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Polling analysis: The latest 20 Ashcroft marginal surveys For the past four years my view of GE15 has been that 2010 LD voters in the marginals were likely to be a main driving force. In 2010 they represented nearly one in four of all GB votes. Now the party had been polling only a fraction of that where would those votes move? The biggest group of switchers are those saying they’ve gone to LAB. There are many types and it…

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Latest batch of Lord Ashcroft marginals polling is out

Latest batch of Lord Ashcroft marginals polling is out

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The latest batch of Lord Ashcroft marginals polling is out. The average swing in these seats is around 3.5%, which contrasts to the 2% found in last week’s batch of marginal polling. But the swing isn’t uniform in these seats, ranging from a 7.5% Con to Lab swing in Crewe & Nantwich and a 3.5% Lab to Con swing in North East Somerset. The Tories might be happy that the Lab gains are within the margin of error. UKIP might…

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Stand by for this morning seat polling from Lord Ashcroft

Stand by for this morning seat polling from Lord Ashcroft

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The marginal seats poll for release 8am tomorrow are Tory held which need a swing to Labour of about 5% to change. Will they be blue or red? — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) April 13, 2015 I’m on Radio 4’s Today programme this morning followed by a breakfast briefing on the election so won’t be in a position to report and post on the latest round of Ashcroft seat polling. Above ARE the seats which seem to fit his bill. Mike…

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Both the LDs and UKIP jump 3 as CON loses lead with Lord Ashcroft

Both the LDs and UKIP jump 3 as CON loses lead with Lord Ashcroft

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This puts ICM’s 6% CON lead into context I was driving in thick traffic round the M25 and am only just now catching up with this extraordinary afternoon of polling. Lord Ashcroft, who polls weekly by phone and has a weighting structure not too different from ICM. has a very different picture. Both Ashcroft and ICM had 3% leads in their last surveys yet one moved in one direction and the other moved in another To his great credit ICM…

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