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Polling Matters / Political Betting Podcast with James Morris – EdM’s private pollster

Polling Matters / Political Betting Podcast with James Morris – EdM’s private pollster

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This week Polling Matters with Politicalbetting.com Keiran Pedley speaks to James Morris of GQR – Ed Miliband’s private pollster during the 2015 General Election and puts to him some questions raised by PBers. Topics covered include the following (and more): 1) How Labour’s internal polling differed from public polls? 2) What Labour’s polling did (and did not) tell the party and when? 3) Did Ed Miliband really think he was going to win? 4) Did Labour know Ed Balls was…

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Polling Matters/Political Betting podcast: Your questions needed

Polling Matters/Political Betting podcast: Your questions needed

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This week Keiran will be interviewing James Morris on polling, Labour and the General Election campaign. As most will know, James was Ed Miliband’s pollster during the recent election. Keiran will be taking questions from social media and putting them to James. If you have a question please post in the comments box. I am sure it goes without saying, keep them sensible and constructive if you want them read out. The episode is being recorded on Tuesday and should…

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Polling Matters/PB Podcast: Professor John Curtice discusses the Exit Poll

Polling Matters/PB Podcast: Professor John Curtice discusses the Exit Poll

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In a slightly shorter version of the Polling Matters podcast (14 mins 23 secs) Keiran discusses the exit poll with Professor John Curtice. We discuss how it was done and how Professor Curtice felt when he realised it was about to say something very different to what the opinion polls had said. Keiran Pedley is an Associate Director at GfK NOP and tweets about polling and politics in a personal capacity at @keiranpedley

CON takes 12% lead in ComRes/Mail poll which uses new methodology to deal with turnout

CON takes 12% lead in ComRes/Mail poll which uses new methodology to deal with turnout

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ComRes/Mail chart of its 1st post GE15 poll with new methodology pic.twitter.com/3Y92PalA8w — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 4, 2015 ComRes chart showing impact of its new "voter turnout model" pic.twitter.com/r3aqagDiuI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 4, 2015 In its first post GE15 phone survey for the Daily Mail ComRes is reporting a 12% CON lead. In an attempt to learn the lessons of May 7th the firm has developed a new Vote Turnout Model which seeks to refine the standard…

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CON lead by 11 in first post-GE15 voting poll but government approval at minus 5

CON lead by 11 in first post-GE15 voting poll but government approval at minus 5

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First YouGov/Sun GE20 voting poll after the electionCon 41 Lab 30 LD 7 UKIP 13 GRN 4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 1, 2015 First YouGov voting poll since GE15 has 44% saying they disapprove of the Government’s record to date & 39% saying approve — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 1, 2015 Today's YouGov net minus 5 government approval rating compares with net plus of 20 in 1st poll of June 2010 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 1, 2015 From…

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If LAB’s polling gap with CON had throughout been 6% worse than it was Miliband would have been replaced

If LAB’s polling gap with CON had throughout been 6% worse than it was Miliband would have been replaced

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YouGov monthly averages 2013-15 What kept him in place were LAB’s good voting intention numbers The table above shows the YouGov monthly averages from its daily polls for the period 2013-2015. These numbers are being highlighted to make a statement about all the pollsters – that for much of the last parliament Labour enjoyed substantial leads and it was only in recent months that this started to decline. These voting intention shares were being recorded in poll and after poll…

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Looking back to those final GE15 phone polls one thing stands out about LAB backers…

Looking back to those final GE15 phone polls one thing stands out about LAB backers…

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There were more non-GE10 voters in the LAB totals than in CON The British Polling Council inquiry into what went wrong with the GE15 is well under way and no doubt many will be putting forward theories about what caused them to be so wrong. One of the factors that I believe was partly responsible for the overstatement of LAB shares is featured in the chart above – a larger part of its support according to the surveys was coming…

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STAY likely to win the EU In/Out referendum for the same reason that CON won GE15 – the fear of the unknown

STAY likely to win the EU In/Out referendum for the same reason that CON won GE15 – the fear of the unknown

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The Wiki list of EU referendum polling this year. http://t.co/5NVImL1UKO pic.twitter.com/MYjeXmLBHU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 19, 2015 On the face of it the numbers look good for STAY but are they? One of the things that the Tory victory on May 7th ensures is that during this parliament there will be an in/out referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU. The question is which way will it go? A big campaigning lesson from the general election was how successfully…

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