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Category: Polls

It could be that the days of saturation general election polling ended at 10pm on May 7th

It could be that the days of saturation general election polling ended at 10pm on May 7th

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The chart says it all. There have been just 6 general election polls published in the UK since May 7th – a sharp contrast with the numbers we saw even by this stage five years ago. Confidence in the numbers that are produced has collapsed – a situation not helped by the polling ahead of last weekend’s referendum in Greece. If polling cannot give us even a broad picture of a likely general election outcome then what is the point?…

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Why polling is so hard – the latest PB/Polling Matters podcast.

Why polling is so hard – the latest PB/Polling Matters podcast.

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In this week’s episode of Polling Matters in conjunction with Politicalbetting.com, Keiran and Rob Vance – VP at Penn Schoen Berland. discuss the perils of polling with Suzanne Ter Minassian of ICM. We look at the BPC inquiry and Lord Foulkes’ plans to regulate the industry alongside the Greek referendum and Labour leadership contests. Suzanne also explains how polling is done in France and the impact of statutory regulation there.

Nick Sparrow, the pollster who did most to change post-1992, on poll averaging, herding and the pressure to conform

Nick Sparrow, the pollster who did most to change post-1992, on poll averaging, herding and the pressure to conform

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< Why Polls End Up Saying The Same Thing Following the General Election, the pollsters have been accused of having herd instincts.  How else do so many polling companies, acting independently, get to the same – wrong – answer? In the final days of the campaign, the polls mainly agreed on the likely outcome, and even a late movement to Labour.  Polls of polls ironed out small differences and gave an even greater feeling of certainty.  But the natural belief...

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How the Alternative Vote system could stop Burnham becoming Labour leader

How the Alternative Vote system could stop Burnham becoming Labour leader

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How Corbyn could stop Burnham winning the Labour leadership http://t.co/2f88L4Rpcs pic.twitter.com/lgVdxNMvrt — TSE (@TSEofPB) July 1, 2015 Many thanks to Richard Nabavi for posting this article by Peter Kellner on the previous thread. Peter Kellner looks at how the Alternative Vote system Labour use to elect their leader might stop Andy Burnham winning, it should be remembered, that this voting system helped Ed Miliband defeat his brother five years ago. If you’re not sure how the Alternative Vote system works, this…

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The Ipsos Mori issues index for June

The Ipsos Mori issues index for June

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  The big risers are Immigration/Immigrants and EU/Europe, which seems understandable given the focus on the EU referendum since the election. The big faller is the economy, which maybe confirmation of the fifteen year high in consumer confidence that the pollster GfK found yesterday. For me the most interesting aspect of this polling is the below chart. There’s a real difference between the ages, so the older groups are more concerned by the EU than younger ones, this as has…

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Guest Slot: Social media and shy rightwingers

Guest Slot: Social media and shy rightwingers

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Tissue Price on the polling errors across Europe The inquest into the polling disaster at the UK General Election continues. Matt Singh of NumberCruncherPolitics provided an excellent overview of the pollsters’ initial thoughts last week, ahead of the first meeting of the official BPC/MRS inquiry. Some pollsters think faulty sampling was the principal cause of error, some blame turnout modelling, and one thinks a genuine late swing was the biggest single factor. Dan Hodges channels Emile Zola in accusing the…

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David Miliband won the 2010 LAB members ballot by 8.8% – the final poll had had him 4% behind

David Miliband won the 2010 LAB members ballot by 8.8% – the final poll had had him 4% behind

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YouGov LAB members poll Sept ’10 YouGov 1st round Actual 1st round YouGov Miliband preference Final votes ABBOTT, Diane 11 7.3 0 0 BALLS, Ed 9 10.1 0 0 BURNHAM, Andy 10 8.6 0 0 MILIBAND, David 38 44.1 48 54.4 MILIBAND, Ed 31 29.9 52 45.6 Left wing contenders were overstated, those of the right understated Judging by what some LAB members have been Tweeting it looks as though, maybe even tonight, we’ll see the first poll, from YouGov,…

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Ipsos Mori finds support at a 24 year high for remaining in the EU

Ipsos Mori finds support at a 24 year high for remaining in the EU

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75% would vote to remain to stay in the EU whilst 25% would vote to leave One of the reasons I like the Ipsos Mori polling on the EU, is that they’ve been polling on the topic for nearly forty years, they have another poll out today for the the Evening Standard. If the historic in-out referendum were to be staged now, 66 per cent say they would vote to remain members and 22  per cent would vote to quit. Excluding…

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