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Category: Polls

The GE2015 polling fail put down to “unrepresentative samples”

The GE2015 polling fail put down to “unrepresentative samples”

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Too many LAB supporters interviewed – not enough Tories A new report just published today by NatCen Social Research and authored by leading psephologist, Prof John Curtice, suggests that the polls called the General Election wrong primarily because the samples of people they polled were not adequately representative of the country as a whole. Rather than other explanations, such as a late swing to the Conservative Party, Labour abstentions, or so-called “shy Tories” not telling pollsters their true voting intentions,…

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Why Team Corbyn might be on a loser attacking the trustworthiness of BBC journalists

Why Team Corbyn might be on a loser attacking the trustworthiness of BBC journalists

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The real problem, surely, is Labour’s poor media operation The whole reshuffle affair has dominated the headlines for far too long and that’s not been good for the image of Corbyn’s Labour. As Damian McBride was saying in the PB/Polling Matters podcast yesterday the art of a reshuffle is to have it largely completed before word starts seeping to the media. Instead we have had speculation going on for weeks so what should have been a 48 hour maximum story…

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Mark Pack on his polling archive database

Mark Pack on his polling archive database

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Way back in the 1980s, one day I was watching David Owen being interviewed on television, responding to probing questions about the then Alliance’s opinion polls ratings by saying there was a seasonal pattern in third party support in the polls. Frustration with the lack of detail in his answers or knowledge in the interviewer’s follow-up questions turned into a fruitless search for sources for answering the question afterwards. Which then led to the birth of my collection of opinion…

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All the pollsters finding that current LAB voters reluctant to give Corbyn their full backing

All the pollsters finding that current LAB voters reluctant to give Corbyn their full backing

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Corbyn has got the Ed Miliband problem Looking back over GE2015 polls what should have raised questions about the voting intention findings was that in all the leader ratings of different forms Ed Miliband was always a long way behind Cameron. I made that mistake. People are voting for a Prime Minister and their view of the contenders is, as I’ve argued, a much better pointer to election outcomes than their party choice where the polls have failed twice in…

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Zac to win mayoralty, Corbyn to survive, Trump to fail: Ipsos MORI poll on what people think will happen in 2016

Zac to win mayoralty, Corbyn to survive, Trump to fail: Ipsos MORI poll on what people think will happen in 2016

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Ipsos MORI poll on what Britons think will happen in 2016 pic.twitter.com/3iMR8qkECm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 29, 2015 Ipsos MORI 2016 prediction poll – Sport etc pic.twitter.com/V2zVmIrJqY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 29, 2015 Ipsos MORI 2016 prediction poll Economic pic.twitter.com/aSm7PtQwHC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 29, 2015 Welcome 2016 – Prediction Time It’s that time of year when people look to the next year and start making predictions. One new development on this that I don’t recall seeing…

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Three words pollsters would rather you didn’t mention; differential non response

Three words pollsters would rather you didn’t mention; differential non response

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A special column by ex-ICM boss & polling pioneer, Nick Sparrow While trumpeting the fact that samples are representative of the adult population, researchers seldom, if ever, publish response rate data. Truth is that for telephone polls, response rates are frighteningly low and falling. The reasons for this are varied, but include the fact that many of us have become wary of calls from strangers, having been bombarded with unsolicited sales calls and by “suggers”, the industry term for people…

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While latest polling might not be good for Corbyn it also raises questions over Osborne

While latest polling might not be good for Corbyn it also raises questions over Osborne

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@MSmithsonPB If 38% of Con voters can't answer a question like that in Osborne's favour he's fucked. — ForgottenGenius (@ExStrategist) December 21, 2015 The problem Osborne’s got is the party’s electoral system that was devised by William Hague during his 1997-2001 period as leader. Basically there is an exhaustive ballot of MPs to choose two of their number whose names will go forward to the membership in a secret postal ballot. Given that so many of the blue team at…

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This is the sort of leadership polling that’ll be seized on by Corbyn’s Labour opponents

This is the sort of leadership polling that’ll be seized on by Corbyn’s Labour opponents

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Why Opinium’s switched from approval ratings to favourability @MSmithsonPB mainly to counter the fact that all my Tory-supporting colleagues strongly approve of the job he's doing — Adam Drummond (@AGKD123) December 20, 2015 If leader ratings really are the best electoral pointer then CON looks set to be in power until at least May 2025 From where I stand there are two ways that Corbyn could be brought down. The first is a growing realisation from polling and elections results…

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