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Category: Polls

Stopping the SNP juggernaut – what are the chances for Scotland’s opposition parties?

Stopping the SNP juggernaut – what are the chances for Scotland’s opposition parties?

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Analysis of the most recent Ipsos Scotland poll With two months to go until the Holyrood elections, Ipsos MORI’s latest Scotland poll yet again finds the SNP ahead on voting intention – 52% of likely voters are minded to vote SNP for their constituency, and 47% say they will vote for them on their regional list. Both the Conservatives (on 23% constituency, 22% list) and Labour (15%/14%) continue to trail well behind. But as the well worn saying goes, a…

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Polling Klaxon: Why you shouldn’t read too much into a small subsample, see this Scottish subsample as the perfect example

Polling Klaxon: Why you shouldn’t read too much into a small subsample, see this Scottish subsample as the perfect example

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Earlier on this week there was much excitement about that tweet from UK Briefing that the SNP had shed nearly a quarter of their vote which would fit a certain narrative given the recent extraordinary contretemps between Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmond, and the original tweet was retweeted with wild abandon. However astute poll watchers like Anthony Wells and Britain Elects plus myself pointed out that the figures quoted by UK Briefing was a subsample of 154 which is nowhere…

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MRP ELECTION MODELLING: HOW USEFUL IS IT OUTSIDE OF AN ELECTION PERIOD?

MRP ELECTION MODELLING: HOW USEFUL IS IT OUTSIDE OF AN ELECTION PERIOD?

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When YouGov published their multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) election model during the 2017 General Election campaign, it’s fair to say that it was met with a great deal of scepticism (though not from Alastair Meeks). Sure, expectations about the size of the Conservative majority had been scaled back, but a hung-parliament? Labour gain Canterbury? No chance… In the end the Tories did a little bit better than the model predicted and Theresa May clung on to power. But the…

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Merry Christmas: rising Covid cases, No Deal Brexit, recession and maybe lockdown

Merry Christmas: rising Covid cases, No Deal Brexit, recession and maybe lockdown

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Yet the government remains surprisingly popular – for now This is the end. Not the real end, of course. There is no real end; just the start of another chapter. But as far as Brexit goes, that’s it: no more can-kicking, no more transition periods, no more rule-taking. Out. There is a slim chance that the UK and EU might, even at this late stage, strike a trade deal. The two sides are still talking, genuine and quick movement clearly…

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Two warnings for Johnson in today’s YouGov poll

Two warnings for Johnson in today’s YouGov poll

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The gender divides that should concern the Tories There’s a new YouGov poll out with its regular trackers two of which should seriously concern Johnson as the EU discussions reach a critical stage. Brexit Wrong continues to have a double digit lead in the firm’s regular question that has been asked at least twice a month since the 2016 referendum. To the question “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?”…

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