Why I’m scaling back on my “Tory buy” position As far as I can see there is only one voting intention poll this morning and that is from the non-British Polling Council registered BPIX in the Mail on Sunday Frustratingly the only figures available online are a CON-LAB split of 40%-35% with no information about the Lib Dems. The pollster found there was a 37%-37% split when it asked how respondents would vote if Tony Blair was still Labour leader….
Why is there confusion at the Guardian over the Lib Dem total? The main lead in the Guardian this morning is its new ICM poll which shows huge changes on the last survey from the pollster just under a fortnight ago. These are the shares with comparisons on that survey – CON 37% (-6): LAB 31% (-4): LD 21/23% (+6/8) The reason why I am quoting two figures for the Lib Dems is that the story in the Guardian says…
Sky News commissioning Huhne-Clegg poll Adam Boulton has emailed me to say that Sky News has commissioned a YouGov Poll of party members on the LibDem Leadership race. This will be carried out next week and they will have the results to make available ion the evening of Saturday 1st December. Given that by then a large proportion of members are likely to have voted then at least part of it will be akin to an exit poll. My guess…
Is Huhne really 20% ahead? In the absence of any proper polling of Lib Dem party members anybody wanting to have a punt on the leadership election has almost no hard evidence on which to make their choice. The Guardian, however, reports on a survey it carried out on Wednesday night amongst 200 members it questioned at a hustings meeting in Cambridge. The outcome was certainly encouraging for the former Guardian journalist and now party environment spokesman, Chris Huhne. This…
New poll indicates an overall Cameron majority of 14 A new YouGov poll tonight for Channel 4 shows the extent of the damage that has been caused by the CD-rom affair and indicates an overall majority for David Cameron of 14. These are the shares compared with the last survey from the YouGov panel on Sunday: CON 41% (nc): LAB 32% (-3) LD 14% (+1) The nine point Tory margin over Labour is the biggest that has ever been recorded…
What will the data fiasco do to Nick Palmer’s bet? PBC’s most prolific and long-standing MP contributor, Nick Palmer, often enters into charity bets on the site where the loser, if it is not he, makes a donation to the Cats Protection League in his constituency of Broxtowe in Nottinghamshire. One such current bet is that Labour will “not fall below 34% in an ICM poll before the end of 2007”. Given that the last survey had the party at…
Could Hillary’s campaign be impeded by the first state to decide? The main headline overnight on the ABC news in the US is a poll it commissioned with the Washington Post on the state of opinion in Iowa – which on January 3rd will become the first state to make its decisions on the contenders for the 2008 White House race. In the Democrat race the black senator from Illinois, Barack Obama, is recorded as being in the top position…
YouGov, like ICM, shows a big Labour deficit amongst the elderly On Tuesday I came under attack when I observed that the latest ICM poll had showed a very sharp difference in Tory lead amongst the 65+ age group. True – there is always a danger when you focus on sub-sets, like I was doing, that the picture could be be distorted. But when the same trend is seen across a number of surveys you can be more confident about…