Two more polls show increases in the Labour deficit A week ago Gord returned from his holiday and went on the publicity offensive with a series of set-piece interviews and high profile announcements. For days there was hardly a TV bulletin without him featuring. This wasn’t a re-launch, we were assured, but it had all the makings of one. Brown was trying to get the initiative back and to build on the improvements in Labour polling fortunes that we had…
But why is this against the trend of other recent surveys? A new poll by Ipsos-MORI for the Sun today goes completely against the run of other recent surveys and reports that Cameron’s Tories now have a 10% lead. The following are the shares with changes on the last survey from the pollster before Christmas – CON 42(nc): LAB 32(-3): LD 15(+1) After a period when Populus, YouGov and ICM have all reported Labour deficits of within 5% today’s survey…
Is the new leadership turning the party around? I’ve long argued that the battle for the next election is about the centre ground and, in particular whether Labour can recover many of the votes that switched to the Lib Dems in 2005 and how far Cameron’s Tories can go in attracting and retaining supporters of Clegg’s party. Reproduced above is from the full dataset of this month’s Populus poll and shows how support split based on what respondents said they…
“Four Daves” – Con 37 (-3), Lab 33 (+1), Lib Dem 19 (+3) Clegg gives Lib Dems a three-point boost Cameron leads 44-40 on best PM Brown only six points ahead on “strong leader” UK politics has been overshadowed by the dramatic events across the Atlantic, but tonight’s Populus poll in the Times shows the state of the parties as Parliament returns from the Christmas break. Nick Clegg, who’ll face his first PMQs on Wednesday, gets a three-point boost for…
McCain has 4% margin in GOP race There have been more big moves on the Democratic candidate markets following a new poll by Gallup for USA TODAY that shows that Hillary Clinton is 13% behind amongst New Hampshire voters who will take part in the first full primary of the 2008 White House Race, in New Hampshire, tomorrow. Obama is at 41% with Clinton on 28% and Edwards on 19%. This is by far the biggest margin that we have…
Frank Luntz gets the reaction of NH voters Once again it is the fights for the main party nominations in the 2008 White House race that dominate the political betting news. After Thursday night’s Iowa caucuses the next big decision point is New Hampshire where the first proper primaries take place on Tuesday. The Democrat betting has seen big changes over the past 24 hours with Hillary Clinton moving from her odds-on favourite position to second favourite across almost all…
The betting markets stick with Hillary – just The UK national dailies that used to be called “the broadsheets” get their first chance this morning to dissect Thursday night’s events in Iowa and they devote page after page to the outcome. If there is any UK political news about it’s hard to find and clearly there’s going to be a high level of interest until well after the New Hampshire outcome on Tuesday night. Whatever the results in the “granite…
The Lib Dem’s Paddick is down at just 7% A new poll by YouGov for for ITV’s London Tonight puts Ken on 45 per cent, just one point above Boris with the Lib-Dem candidate Brian Paddick trailing on seven per cent in what looks set to be the biggest domestic battle during 2008. If the Tories managed to unseat Livingston it would be a major political upset and a big set-back for Brown. It will no doubt be recalled that…