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Category: Polls

Did YouGov really get Ken’s result wrong last time?

Did YouGov really get Ken’s result wrong last time?

Can the pollster be accused of “persistently understating” his ratings? With the row over Ken Livingstone’s custodianship of the London mayoralty continuing unabated the election on May 1st that will determine his future looks set to be the biggest UK political betting bonanza since the 2005 general election. It has all the ingredients that make it attractive to punters – high profile contenders who everybody knows by their first names; passionate feelings across the political spectrum about the current incumbent…

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So who will be our third winner tonight?

So who will be our third winner tonight?

How will Nevada impact on the nomination betting? A massive win in Nevada for Mitt Romney, the scale of which was not predicted by the polls, has seen his price for the GOP nomination tighten to 3.1/1 putting him in the second favourite slot behind John McCain. The RCP polling average was suggesting that the race would be much tighter and, indeed, one survey this week had the senior Senator from the neighbouring state of Arizona, John McCain, in the…

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A week to go…and some other items

A week to go…and some other items

All those who enjoying coming to the site, and not just those who post, will be most welcome at the fourth PBC party a week tonight. Once again it will be held at the National Liberal Club, Whitehall Place, London SW1A 2HE. The date – Friday 25th January 2008, from 6pm until about 9.30pm, or when thrown out if sooner. There will be a cash bar and a £5 entry charge, payable on the door, as a contribution towards sandwiches…

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Could the GOP nominee not even be in the race yet?

Could the GOP nominee not even be in the race yet?

Should you be betting against all the current front-runners? With White House nomination races continuing to dominate the political betting markets in the UK we are sticking with that this morning. In a round-up of where the Republican race lies after Romney’s emphatic victory in Michigan the Guardian‘s man in DC, Richard Adams, raises the possibility that the eventual winner might not yet be in the race. Under the heading that “only a lunatic or a fool would predict who…

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Can Romney pull it round in his father’s state?

Can Romney pull it round in his father’s state?

Or will McCain become an even bigger favourite? It’s Tuesday and that means, for the next month or so at least, that it’s primary time in the US. Today it’s been the voters of Michigan who are having their turn to decide who should occupy the GOP slot. There is voting on the Democratic nominee but no one will take any notice because of the state is in defiance of the party nationally, there has been no campaigning and the…

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Methtinks it’s time to be back backing Barack

Methtinks it’s time to be back backing Barack

Will he come out top in Nevada and South Carolina? Like many long-standing Obama backers, I’m sure, my confidence in his ability to do it was shaken by last week’s New Hampshire primary. What concerned me particularly was the way the the ex-President’s spouse was able to galvanise women voters and get them to the polls. This was a major achievement which if replicated across the country could make wininng the nomination a certainty. My Betfair book is reproduced above…

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…..Michigan…..Nevada…..South Carolina

…..Michigan…..Nevada…..South Carolina

Is McCain becoming unstoppable? With the next big battle in the GOP race taking place in the Michigan primary tomorrow new national polls have reported leads of 8% and 15% for John McCain – the 71 year old who in the run up to Christmas looked as though he was finished. He’s now the 1.38/1 favourite to take the prize. Tomorrow all eyes will be focussed on Michigan which is really the last big chance for Mitt Romney to make…

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Is this why Cameron U-turned on nuclear power?

Is this why Cameron U-turned on nuclear power?

Has Dave dumped his “nuclear a last resort” commitment? Watching Andrew Marr interviewing David Cameron this morning I was struck at the ease in which the Tory leader has been able to change the party’s stance on nuclear power. From a position when he became leader of regarding this as a last resort he’s managed to move it so that the only issue is whether or not there is a taxpayer subsidy. Marr pressed him a couple of times but…

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