Will he come out top in Nevada and South Carolina?

Like many long-standing Obama backers, I’m sure, my confidence in his ability to do it was shaken by last week’s New Hampshire primary. What concerned me particularly was the way the the ex-President’s spouse was able to galvanise women voters and get them to the polls. This was a major achievement which if replicated across the country could make wininng the nomination a certainty.

My Betfair book is reproduced above with the green amounts showing my net positions. On top of that I have about £1000 at risk on him on the Spreadfair spread betting exchange.

In the aftermath of last week I reduced my exposure on both markets but have now returned. My reasons are these:-

The cack-handed Clintons. The way Camp Clinton has sought to rubbish Obama and open themselves up to accusations of racism has been very poor. Even Bill’s interventions have not been helpful. They are in the lead and should not ever mention their main opponent. When they’ve tried to rubbish their main opponent they haven’t looked very pretty and I think that this could hurt Hillary.

Growing support from “Red State Dems” A survey by Politico which looks quite significant found that Obama was attracting growing support from leading Democratic politicians in states which are traditional Republican (In US political colouring – Red)

Improvements in some national polls. Clinton is trailing McCain by an average of 5.3% according to Real Clear Politics. Obama is only 0.5% behind. The same Obama advantage goes with all the comparisons against the GOP front-runners.

Roll on Nevada and South Carolina.

Mike Smithson