Populus Last night’s big news was the Populus survey for the Times showing that the Tories had extended their lead to 13% – which was in sharp contrast to YouGov the day before that had the gap in hung parliament territory – just 7%. Well I’ve just got round to examining the detailed data and as shown above the poll would have been much worse for Brown’s party but for the so-called “spiral of silence” adjustment. Under this the pollsters…
Wikipedia Does YouGov point to Brown breaking through the 32% ceiling? As PB regulars will know I’m very sceptical about averaging polls because the pollsters all operate in such different ways that lumping them all into one big number does not really add to anything and can often give a distorted view. There’s was a well researched comment on this by Andy Cooke last night that’s now been made into a full post on PB Channel 2 . A good…
Click here to watch Was the Pickles roasting a foretaste of what’s to come? Like most recent polls this morning’s April survey by Populus for the Times picked up voter hostility towards MPs and their expenses – but it’s often hard from the numbers themselves to get a feel for the passion that this subject arouses. There’s real anger out there. In the same week that the Daniel Hannan YouTube speech was “going viral” there was, perhaps, an even more…
CON 41(nc) LAB 34(+3) LD 16(-1) But should Brown Central have been expecting much more? A new YouGov poll taken on Friday and today gives Labour a boost following the massive exposure for Gordon Brown during the G20 meeting. Fieldwork took place on the two days afterwards when most of the coverage was highly positive. The figures above show comparisons with the last survey from the firm just over a week ago. To put the change in context it will…
The Labour Party Spread moves suggest a CON MAJORITY of 45: Down 11 seats There’s been a sharp move to Labour on the Sporting Index Commons seats spread market follow the G20 meeting. The latest figures with the SELL price first and the BUY price second are: CON 345 – 350: LAB 230 – 235: LD 43 – 46 seats. The bookmaker has also reduced the range of the spread from six seats to five which should offer a little…
CON 40(-1) LD 18(+1) LAB 28(-2) But could there be no votes for Labour in the G20 meeting? What should be the final poll for March, ComRes for the Indy, is now out and shows a small increase in the Tory lead – although the shares of both the main parties slipped on the last polls from the pollster a week and a half ago. The notable feature is the high figure for “others” 14% which shows the Greens and…
CON 44(+2) LAB 31(+1) LD 18(-2) Sunday Telegraph poll gives Cameron a boost A new poll by ICM for tomorrow’s Sunday Telegraph is just out and sees Cameron’s party edging up further from the last survey from the firm in the Guardian a week and a half ago. The shares, incidentally, are almost exactly the mirror image of the 1997 general election result when Labour got 44% to the 31% for the Tories led by John Major. The Lib Dems…
STV News Remember the pollster’s 17% Labour lead in Glasgow East? Last July as the Glasgow East by election campaign was going into its final weekend there was a poll from a firm called Progressive Scottish Opinion suggesting that Labour had a 17% lead. On the following Thursday, of course, the SNP won. This had an immediate impact on the betting with the SNP price moving out and Labour becoming and even tighter odds-on favourite. For those who saw this…