CON 41(nc) LAB 34(+3) LD 16(-1)
But should Brown Central have been expecting much more?
A new YouGov poll taken on Friday and today gives Labour a boost following the massive exposure for Gordon Brown during the G20 meeting. Fieldwork took place on the two days afterwards when most of the coverage was highly positive. The figures above show comparisons with the last survey from the firm just over a week ago.
To put the change in context it will be recalled that last September the first YouGov poll after Brown’s speech to the Labour conference saw the party’s share rising from 24% to 31% with the Tories share declining by three points to 41%. So what had been a 20 point Tory lead became a 7 point. Tonight the lead has moved from just 10 points to 7 points.
The figures for the main parties are almost exactly the same as the first poll of 2009 at the start of January when it was C41-L34-LD15.
Given the massive effort that went into the meeting and the almost saturation coverage I think that Brown Central would have been hoping for something better – particularly from the pollster that in recent months has been showing the best Labour figures
What will be disappointing is that the Labour increase has not come at the expense of the Tories who remain doggedly in the 40s as they have been in every single poll from YouGov since October 4th 2007 – and we all remember what happened then.
Just over half of those questioned (52%) thought that the summit had been a success although only 44% believed it would help end the recession sooner.
To my mind this poll is very much reflecting the coverage of the past few days and we will need further surveys before we can start to measure the full impact of the G20.