Spread moves suggest a CON MAJORITY of 45: Down 11 seats
There’s been a sharp move to Labour on the Sporting Index Commons seats spread market follow the G20 meeting.
The latest figures with the SELL price first and the BUY price second are: CON 345 – 350: LAB 230 – 235: LD 43 – 46 seats. The bookmaker has also reduced the range of the spread from six seats to five which should offer a little bit of extra value.
The mid-point on the Tory spread is down 5.5 seats on when we last featured the market on Wednesday and this adjusts to 11 seats in terms of the size of the majority.
The big question is whether the spread move will be reflected in the next round of polling? Will Brown get a G20 boost and, if so, how big will it be? The next scheduled poll should be Populus on Monday evening though we could see an unscheduled survey in one of the Sundays overnight.
I find this hard to call. My reaction was that this was positive for Gordon but there have been other things going on during the week especially in relation to MPs expenses and Fred Goodwin’s pension.
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