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Category: Polls

Will 22,000+ Chloe votes = “Dave’s sealed the deal”?

Will 22,000+ Chloe votes = “Dave’s sealed the deal”?

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What general election pointers should we be looking for? We’ve had quite a few by elections in this parliament but most have been largely irrelevant in what they say about the Tory-Labour battle that will determine the general election. Tomorrow at Norwich North it’s different. This is a seat that the Tories should pick up relatively easily if they want to maintain their general election expectations – but what do we mean by “relatively easily“? Interestingly the Westminster voting intention…

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Tories with 16-point lead from Ipsos-MORI

Tories with 16-point lead from Ipsos-MORI

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CON 40 (+2) LAB 24 (+3) LD 18 (-1) “Others” fall as we move further from the Euros A new poll from Ipsos-MORI shows the big two parties gaining most as the high support for Others around the time of the Euros continues to ebb away, with the Conservatives up two points to the key threshold of 40, and Labour climbing three up into the mid-20s. The decline for the share of “Others” (down 4 to 18 – Greens &…

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Populus Gives 12-point Tory lead

Populus Gives 12-point Tory lead

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CON 38% (+2) LAB 26% (+2) LD 20% (+1) The Big Parties’ recovery continues The main impact of tonight’s Populus poll for tomorrow’s Times is on the minor parties, which are down 5%, with the gap between Tories and Labour steady at 12%, both up two points on the last Populus poll back on 10 June, shortly after the European elections and at the height of the expenses scandal. The 16% finding for Others is still high by historic standards. The…

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Andrew Rawnsley: A nominee for a PB Polling Dunce Award?

Andrew Rawnsley: A nominee for a PB Polling Dunce Award?

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Has the Observer columnist fallen into the 1990s polling trap? As PB regulars will know one thing that makes me absolutely furious is when pundits seek to compare the polls of the 1990s with modern day numbers. For back in the run-up to the 1997 election almost all the pollsters were in their unreformed mode and there was a systemic over-statement of Labour – something that we do not see any more. The pollsters from that era have either moved…

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Does the polling “form book” provide any hope for Labour?

Does the polling “form book” provide any hope for Labour?

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ICM Guardian – July 6 1996 CON 30 LAB 45 LD 21 General Election Result May 1 1997 CON 31.4 LAB 44.4 LD 17.2 ICM Guardian – July 15 2000 CON 35 LAB 42 LD 17 General Election result June 7 2001 CON 32.7 LAB 42 LD 18.8 ICM Guardian – July 18 2004 CON 30 LAB 35 LD 25 General Election result May 5 2005 CON 33.2 LAB 36.2 LD 22.6 Comparing the July pre-election polls with what happened?…

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What if support for the “others” doesn’t decline?

What if support for the “others” doesn’t decline?

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Who’ll suffer most – Dave, Gord or Nick? Another poll and another big share for “other parties” which have seen their Westminster polling numbers stay at very high levels even though it’s nearly a month since the June 4th Euro Elections. All the pundits, including me, were suggesting a rapid decline as the EU election affect wears off and all the focus is on the battle ahead between Labour and the Tories with the LDs having an interest in a…

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Could PM Johnson deny Cameron his majority?

Could PM Johnson deny Cameron his majority?

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Would a change give Labour more hope? There’s a sentence in John Rentoul’s weekend piece that is worth examining. For in assessing prospect for the election Rentoul notes “I assume that the Labour Party will recover from its current trough of unpopularity, by which I mean that it replaces Brown with Alan Johnson..” Rentoul, of course, is a Blair biographer and is no fan of Brown Central. He’s also been tipping an Alan Johnson switch-over ahead of the election for…

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New YouGov poll has Dave slightly further ahead

New YouGov poll has Dave slightly further ahead

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CON 40 (+2) LAB 24 (-1) LD 17 (-1) But the changes are all within the margin of error There was a new poll out overnight after all and we are just picking up the details. It was in the People which carried a similar YouGov poll only a few weeks ago. No fieldwork dates are mentioned but I assume that this took place after the Telegraph’s YouGov survey which we featured here on Thursday evening. Let’s hope that the…

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