CON 42% (-2) LAB 28% (+1) LD 19%(+2) Is it back to where we were before the conferences? A new non-tracker full sample YouGov poll for the Sun is just out and the figure are shown with comparisons on the latest tracker poll where the most of the fieldwork took place last night. This is a standard 2.161 sample survey and has variations on the smaller poll that was completed a few hours earlier. I’m coming to the view that…
CON 44% (+4) LAB 27% (-4) LD 17%(-1) The tracker sees Labour’s deficit increase by 8 points Long-standing regulars will know that for years I’ve argued that that there is a close correlation between the amount of coverage that Cameron gets on TV and his party’s poll ratings. So after the “saturation-Cameron” coverage around his big speech ahead of the field-work for the latest YouGov tracker what happens? Of course. The Tories see their share moving to 44% all at…
BBC Does the Osborne gamble dominate everything? If the polls have got this right then within the next seven months George Osborne will be the chancellor at a time when circumstances dictate hard unpopular action. The question for the Tories here in Manchester this week was whether to try to skip over the details and talk in generalities or else or to start to spell out how a Tory government would handle things. Along with many I thought that they’s…
CON 43% (+2) LAB 29% (+1) LD 17%(-1) Will this easy the Tory jitters? So there we are – the first full poll after George Osborne’s speech yesterday. All the fieldwork would have taken place after the speech. Although these movements are within the margin of error Tory strategists will be breathing a sign of relief that the first reaction to the gamble seems positive. I think that we are seeing another effect – the Labour vote is hardening at…
But could “events” put a smile back on their faces? In a radio interview being reported today, the boss of pollster, ComRes, Andrew Hawkins is suggesting that the election is in the bag the for the Tories. He said: “If Gordon Brown stays in post until the General Election then despite the protest that this will elicit from Tories then yes it is a done deal… “On the analysis we’ve done going back over theg last 4 years worth of…
CON 40% (-1) LAB 27% (-2) LD 20%(+3) And the Lib Dems continue to poll well I assume that this is based on fieldwork that was carried out last night and first thing this morning. To a question of who people thought would perform best in the TV debate the split was: Cameron 49%; Brown 12%; Clegg 15%. So the Tories will be quite pleased that their lead has increased while the Lib Dem will be delighted that once again…
CON 40%(+2) LAB 28%(+5) LD 19%(-4) And the Tories move back to the 40s These changes, once again, seem to fit with the general theory of conference period polling that the party that has been last “on” gets a boost and the longer it is since your conference then your share will decline. The poll is for the Independent on Sunday tomorrow and the fieldwork took place between the 30th September and 1st October 2009 – so Thursday and Friday….
YouGov Will those Sun shares change as we get to polling day? In the aftermath of the Sun’s switch from Labour there was quite a bit of focus on how influential newspapers were on their readers – but little of it was backed by hard evidence. In the data from the latest YouGov tracker the pollster featured the above set of cross-tabs which I do not recall seeing before – linking newspaper type to voting intention. As can be seen…