..and the first post Osborne speech poll has..??

..and the first post Osborne speech poll has..??

CON 43% (+2) LAB 29% (+1) LD 17%(-1)

Will this easy the Tory jitters?

So there we are – the first full poll after George Osborne’s speech yesterday. All the fieldwork would have taken place after the speech.

Although these movements are within the margin of error Tory strategists will be breathing a sign of relief that the first reaction to the gamble seems positive.

I think that we are seeing another effect – the Labour vote is hardening at the prospect of a Tory victory. It’s becoming much more polarised.

YouGov does not weight by certainty to vote and I’m keen to see some data from the phone pollsters who operate in an entirely different way placing a lot of emphasis on this factor.

On the big measure on increasing the retirement age those questioned split – 44% support: 44% oppose

Overall, though we need to wait until the conference effect was worn off before coming to firm conclusions about any of the polling.

Mike Smithson

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