Labour move up 5 pts with ComRes

Labour move up 5 pts with ComRes

CON 40%(+2) LAB 28%(+5) LD 19%(-4)

And the Tories move back to the 40s

These changes, once again, seem to fit with the general theory of conference period polling that the party that has been last “on” gets a boost and the longer it is since your conference then your share will decline.

The poll is for the Independent on Sunday tomorrow and the fieldwork took place between the 30th September and 1st October 2009 – so Thursday and Friday.

Given that so much was being hoped for from Brighton I guess that Labour might be a tad disappointed not to have made the 30 mark. On the other hand the Tories will be delighted to be in the 40s.

Interestingly the focus on big party politics has seen ComRes report its smallest share for “others” – 13% – since way before the Euro elections in June.

ComRes is a phone pollster that weights by past vote recall and “certainty to vote”.

***UPDATE: YouGov also has the Tories 12 pts ahead

There’s also a YouGov poll in the Sunday People which has CON 40: LAB 28: LD 18. I assume that this is not a tracker poll and that fieldwork took place over the normal two to three days. It’s hard to work out what to compare it with because there have been so many YouGov polls of late.

My general view of conference time polling applies and no doubt the Tories will get a boost next week.

Mike Smithson

Comments are closed.