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Category: Polls

Shouldn’t this turn the tide for Labour?

Shouldn’t this turn the tide for Labour?

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Will officially moving out of recession be the trigger? There had been a lot of expectation that today would have seen growth in Q3 (July – September) – a point at which ministers could have declared that the country was “officially” out of recession. That didn’t happen and now Ladbrokes are offering 4/6 that this milestone will be achieved in the final quarter (October to December). Whatever the latest MORI Economic Optimism Index – out this week – has what…

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What do we know about BNP voters?

What do we know about BNP voters?

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YouGov They feel poorer, less safe and believe politicians are corrupt One of most useful surveys this year was the YouGov mega-poll before the June Euro elections for Channel 4. This had a sample of 32,268 and is presented in a form where we can see the responses of party supporters to a range of attitudinal and personal background questions. The table featured above looks at party allegiance and the views of their parents and suggests that BNP supporters are…

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Will the BNP get a Question Time polling boost?

Will the BNP get a Question Time polling boost?

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Angus Reid Strategies Is the controversy behind their 3 point polling share? The full data and weightings for the first Politicalbetting/Angus Reid Strategies poll are now available for download here and here and I reproduce part of the main voting intention table above. With future surveys it’s hoped that we’ll be able to make the detailed tables available at about the same time as the headline figures are published. As we get closer to the election I think that this…

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The blues open up a 23 point gap in England

The blues open up a 23 point gap in England

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CON 47 (+8) LAB 24 (-1) LD 21 (-3) How many more marginals does this put at risk? At the start of September we launched the first of the “Battle-Ground England” poll results which are being provided by MORI on an exclusive basis. The comparisons above are with the last MORI poll taken just after the Liberal Democrat conference. What the firm is doing is running a special calculation for PB allowing us to make more specific projections for where…

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And now the first exclusive PB Angus Reid Strategies poll..

And now the first exclusive PB Angus Reid Strategies poll..

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40% 23% 20% A third pollster reports a 17 point Labour deficit Tonight sees the launch of the exclusive new monthly poll by the leading Canadian firm, Angus Reid Strategies for Politicalbetting.com – and the timing could nor be more apt. The main party figures are above. The “others” are UKIP 5%: GRN 3%: BNP 3%: SNP 3%: PC 1%. Extraordinarily the findings, like the ones from Ipsos-MORI and ICM earlier tonight show exactly the same Labour deficit – seventeen…

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The Tory leads drops to 17 points with ICM

The Tory leads drops to 17 points with ICM

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CON 44 (-1) LAB 27 (+1) LD 18 (nc) A second pollster adds to Labour’s gloom The second of tonight’s three polls, ICM’s for the Guardian, is out and shows very little change on the last survey from the firm taken in the immediate aftermath of the Tory conference and David Cameron’s speech. A lot of people assumed that the last figures were down to the conference effect and that once we “got back to normal” then the scale of…

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The blues open up a 17 point lead with MORI

The blues open up a 17 point lead with MORI

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CON 43 (+7) LAB 26 (-2)(+2) LD 19 (-6) Is the conference effect working its way out of the system? The first of three polls that are expected out in the next 12 hours has been published by Ipsos-Mori and shows a sharp change on their last survey taken just after the Lib Dem conference. That last poll had Labour in third place. The big contrast though is with the recent YouGov and ComRes polls which both showed a narrowing…

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The money starts going back on Labour

The money starts going back on Labour

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SportingIndex Brown’s party move up six notches in ten days In the immediate aftermath of the Tory conference a week and a half ago the commons seat spreads from SportingIndex moved to their lowest ever level of 197 – 202 seats. Following there polls in the past week having Labour in the 28 – 30% range there has been something of a re-evaluation and the numbers have moved upwards. The other main spread market that makes intermittent appearances, Extrabet, has…

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