Will officially moving out of recession be the trigger?
There had been a lot of expectation that today would have seen growth in Q3 (July – September) – a point at which ministers could have declared that the country was “officially” out of recession. That didn’t happen and now Ladbrokes are offering 4/6 that this milestone will be achieved in the final quarter (October to December).
Whatever the latest MORI Economic Optimism Index – out this week – has what should be pretty good news for the government. A plus 21 rating that has not been bettered in any month since the immediate aftermath of Tony Blair’s victory in 1997.
If the “it’s all down to the economy” theorists are right then the movement should predicate a boost for Labour in the voting intention numbers. Well that certainly hasn’t happened this week and the same MORI poll also reported a Tory lead of of 17 points
For those of us in the “it’s not the economy stupid” camp argue that it’s perceptions of political weakness which have driven Labour’s vote share numbers down and that’s the issue that has to be solved if they are to be in with a fighting chance. So even if the recession comes to an end then this of itself will not produce the expected benefit.
Labour has to inspire confidence again and it’s hard to see that happening with the current leadership. In the meantime the election gets closer.