The blues open up a 23 point gap in England

The blues open up a 23 point gap in England

CON 47 (+8)
LAB 24 (-1)
LD 21 (-3)

How many more marginals does this put at risk?

At the start of September we launched the first of the “Battle-Ground England” poll results which are being provided by MORI on an exclusive basis. The comparisons above are with the last MORI poll taken just after the Liberal Democrat conference.

What the firm is doing is running a special calculation for PB allowing us to make more specific projections for where most of the key seats are.

This is important because England has 533 of the 650 seats that will be at stake at the election and proportionately more marginals than in the others parts of the UK. Also in England there is not the SNP/PC dimension which adds to the challenge of making seat predictions.

Last night we had the overall GB MORI figures pointing to an overall LAB>CON swing in Britain of about 10%. On the basis of these England only numbers then the current swing is 2 – 3 points 1.25% higher bringing many more marginals into the frame.

Mike Smithson

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