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Category: Polls

New Scottish poll from Ipsos MORI has support for Scottish independence at 58% – a record level

New Scottish poll from Ipsos MORI has support for Scottish independence at 58% – a record level

Probably the most dramatic and politically significant UK poll for months is the above latest survey by Ipsos MORI on backing for Scottish Independence which, of course, was rejected by voters north of the border in the 2014 referendum. Key points from the poll: Among those who would be likely to vote in an independence referendum, 58% say they would vote Yes while 42% would vote No. Nicola Sturgeon’s personal ratings are extremely positive. 72% of the Scottish public say…

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The battle for the White House – Trump’s fight to retain the female vote

The battle for the White House – Trump’s fight to retain the female vote

It is that gap with women that’s so tough for the incumbent One of the great things that happened in the early days of PB (before GE2005) was the creation of the British Polling Council which placed requirements on pollsters to make available certain key data within a fixed time period after the publication of a poll. This is voluntary but political pollsters know that they will struggle to make an impact unless they are BPC compliant. We now take…

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This Daily Express WH2020 “poll” is not what it seems

This Daily Express WH2020 “poll” is not what it seems

Daily Express readers give their backing to the racist pussy grabberhttps://t.co/G0SLKkOpwJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 13, 2020 Like many PBers I am following WH2020 polling very closely at the moment given millions of Americans have already voted and the election itself is three weeks today. As a result the above story from the “newspaper” the Daily Express popped up my inbox. It says that “a new UK survey has put the President way out in front in the race…

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The states that will decide WH2020 – polling averages from the key battlegrounds

The states that will decide WH2020 – polling averages from the key battlegrounds

With the election just three weeks away way I thought it might be useful to have the above chart so we can monitor the latest polls in the states that will decide the election. The chart shows simply the average Biden polling lead as recorded in Fivethirtyeight.com. These are the states where almost all of the effort is being put in and where, of course, there are the most active betting markets. The number of state polls is unprecedented and…

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How the polls moved since last week’s first debate and Trump contracting COVID-19

How the polls moved since last week’s first debate and Trump contracting COVID-19

In terms of the national polls Trump has taken a big hit over the past few days in the aftermath of his much criticised debate performance and his reaction to catching COVID-19. There’s a lot of discussion going on about comparing current polling with what happened at WH2020 when Trump was firs elected. I’d argue that a better comparison is the polling for the 2018 midterms – Trump’s first electoral test. The main thing that characterises that election was the…

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Some frightening polling from America

Some frightening polling from America

Being a seasoned poll watcher occasionally you see some polling that shocks and disgusts you, for example when in 2017 a poll found 53% of Britons liked pineapple on pizza but this poll from America frightens me on so many levels, in a way no other poll ever has. 33% of of Democrats and 36% of Republicans feel justified in using violence to achieve their political goals, a staggering fourfold increase in just over three years. For a while I’ve…

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Lockdown: Trying to work out what the public will stand for and what it won’t

Lockdown: Trying to work out what the public will stand for and what it won’t

The above two Tweets set out the debate that is going on about what’s necessary to control the pandemic and what people will put up with. All this, course, against the background of what is happening to the economy. My instinct is to go with Ipsos-MORI boss, Ben Page, who is now one of the elder statesmen of the British polling industry. For me personally the family thing is central and I just long to see my children and their…

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For the first time since July 2019 a pollster has the Tories behind

For the first time since July 2019 a pollster has the Tories behind

It was going to come sometime that with the PM’s awful ratings collapse we would at some stage see his party fall behind in the voting intention polling. Well that has happened tonight from Opinium. These are the numbers for the main two parties with changes on a fortnight ago. Labour 42% (+3%) Conservative 39% (-3%) Starmer takes 4% lead over Johnson as Best PM with Johnson 32% -3 Starmer 36% +3. Other figures are bad for the blue team…

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